This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 07 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 09 2024…Dangerous heat continues to impact portions of the West this weekend…
…Heavy rain and scattered instances of flash flooding are possible along
the Gulf Coast and parts of the Southeast……Below average temperatures to settle in across much of the Midwest and
East through the beginning of next week…A few more days of record-breaking and dangerous heat are in store for
parts of the West as well above average temperatures linger underneath a
weakening upper-level high pressure system. Areas most likely to
experience major to extreme HeatRisk (levels of heat that affect anyone
without effective cooling or adequate hydration) through Sunday include
southern California, the Desert Southwest, and the northern Great Basin.
These regions are also where Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories
remain in effect. High temperatures in the Southwest are expected to soar
into the upper 90s and triple digits, with 110s in the typically hottest
desert locations through at least Monday. Highs into the upper 90s are
forecast to simmer the northern Great Basin before a gradual cooling trend
commences by early next week, with the anomalously warm temperatures
forecast to shift eastward into the northern Plains. Residents and
visitors are advised to continue following proper heat safety. This
includes staying hydrated and avoiding extended periods of time outdoors
during the hottest parts of the day. Poor air quality will also remain a
concern for parts of the Great Basin as wildfire smoke continues to
overspread the region.A stationary front extending from off the Southeast coastline to the
northern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide a focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as its moisture gradient
gets reinforced by a separate approaching cold front sinking southward
across the Deep South today. Areas of locally heavy rain and scattered
flash floods are possible from the coastal Carolinas to the central Gulf
Coast, including northern and central Florida. Greater concentration of
tropical downpours are anticipated to reorient to southern Texas by Monday
as an area of low pressure develops in the Bay of Campeche and ushers
elevated atmospheric moisture westward to the western Gulf Coast.Elsewhere, a cold front sweeping across the East Coast today will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the Northeast. Behind this
frontal boundary and underneath potent high pressure, below average and
crisp temperatures are expected to overspread much of the Great Lakes,
Midwest, and East this weekend. Widespread lows into the 40s will lead to
a few chilly mornings, with several daily record lows possible between
Missouri and New Jersey on Sunday. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out for
some locations. Conversely, southern Florida will remain hot and humid
this weekend as high temperatures rise into the low-to-mid 90s, while heat
indices approach 110 degrees.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
