This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 05 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 05 2024 – 12Z Sat Sep 07 2024…Very heavy rain and the threat for scattered to numerous instances of
flash flooding continues for the Gulf Coast states the next couple of
days……Dangerous heat wave intensifies over the Southwest and West Coast…
Heavy rain and flash flooding remain in the forecast along the Gulf Coast
as a stationary front and coastal low drive multiple days of widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the region. The elongated area of low
pressure and front from the north-central to western Gulf will keep the
greatest focus for repeated rounds of storms moving onshore over the
central Gulf Coast and upper Texas Gulf Coast today (Thursday),
potentially spreading a bit further northward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Very moist Gulf air continues to contribute to very efficient
downpours with these storms, approaching 2-3″ per hour in some cases,
exacerbating the threat for heavy totals and flash flooding. There is now
a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall for southeastern
Louisiana where prior days rainfall has lead to very wet antecedent
conditions and brings a locally greater threat for scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding, especially for the urban areas around greater
New Orleans. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in place across the
region for additional scattered instances of flash flooding. An
approaching upper-level wave will help to shift the focus for heavy
rainfall a bit eastward on Friday as the front begins to meander away from
the western Gulf and lift northward into southern Georgia, leading to
decreasing rain chances further West. Another Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall extends from the central Gulf Coast eastward through the Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia where a similar threat for intense heavy
downpours with repeated rounds of storms will lead to several inches of
rain, and the potential for scattered instances of flash flooding.
Temperatures will remain well below average across the region north of the
frontal boundary and in the presence of widespread rain and cloud cover
with mostly upper 70s and low 80s. Some locations may only reach into the
low 70s Friday. On the other hand, it will be hot south of the front
across the Florida Peninsula, with highs in the low 90s. A Heat Advisory
is in place for South Florida where the combination of heat and humidity
will lead to heat indices in the 105-110 degree range.A dangerous heat wave will intensify over the Southwest and West Coast the
next couple of days with a strong upper-level ridge now settled over the
region. Forecast high temperatures Thursday and Friday range from the 110s
for the Desert Southwest, low 100s to near 110 for southern California,
mid-100s for the central California Valleys, and the 90s to low 100s for
central/northern California and into the Pacific Northwest. Several
record-tying/breaking highs are possible across the Pacific Northwest.
Widespread heat-related warnings and advisories are in place given the
heightened threat for heat-related illness to anyone without efficient air
conditioning or adequate hydration. While not quite as hot, highs will be
well above average and potentially uncomfortable even for some immediate
coastal locations with temperatures reaching into the 80s.Elsewhere, a broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected ahead of
a pair of cold fronts passing through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
Central Plains, and central/southern High Plains and adjacent Rockies. The
greatest chance for some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be under
the influence of an upper-level trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes,
and where upslope flow enhances storms over the southern Rockies. A few
isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible in the southern
Rockies given recent rains and some more sensitive burn scars. Storm
chances with moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue ahead of the
front as it pushes eastward through the Great Lakes overnight Thursday and
into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Friday. Some storms may
begin to spread into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic by early Saturday
morning. Temperature-wise, the passing cold front will bring well below
average, Fall-like temperatures to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will be rather
chilly for the Upper Great Lakes by Friday as highs drop into the 50s.
Conditions will be much warmer ahead of the front Thursday over the
Midwest and Ohio Valley with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. The
approaching front will bring temperatures down into the 70s for portions
of the Midwest Friday. Mild conditions will continue for much of the East
Coast through Friday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
