This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 02 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 02 2024 – 12Z Wed Sep 04 2024…Areas of heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding forecast
throughout the south-central U.S. over the next couple of days……Well above average, hot late-Summer temperatures spread from the
northwestern to north-central U.S. through Tuesday……Critical Fire Weather for parts of the central Great Basin on Monday…
Areas showers and thunderstorms will continue over the south-central U.S.
the next couple of days with locally heavy rainfall expected. First, a
cold front pushing into Texas this morning (Monday) will slow and become
quasi-stationary by later tonight as an upper-level disturbance passes
overhead, combining to help trigger numerous storms north of the boundary
over the Texas Hill country, west Texas, and the Big Bend region. There is
a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) as continued storm
development and heavy downpours may lead to some scattered flash flooding.
A more localized threat over the Texas Hill country exists Tuesday, with a
Slight Risk in place. Additional storms are expected to the east
associated with an area of low pressure located just off the Texas coast.
Another Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall has been introduced for today
along the central Texas Gulf Coast where more heavy downpours and some
scattered flash flooding will be possible. The widespread storms,
rainfall, and clouds throughout the region will keep temperatures well
below average, with many highs in the 70s across central and west Texas,
and 80s further east towards the Gulf Coast.Some thunderstorms are also expected today ahead of this front further
east along the coastal Carolinas southwest through Georgia towards the
central Gulf Coast, with the focus shifting to the central Gulf Coast by
Tuesday as the boundary slows and becomes quasi-stationary. Daily
thunderstorm chances will continue for the Florida Peninsula as well. To
the north, the passage of the cold front means some cooler temperatures
for much of the eastern U.S. the next couple of days. Forecast highs range
from the 60s and 70s for the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior
Northeast; the 70s to low 80s from southern New England west through the
Mid-Atlantic and into the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys; and 80s
from the Carolinas west through the Tennessee Valley. A taste of Fall is
in store for many in the interior Northeast Tuesday morning as lows drop
into the 40s. Highs will remain a bit warmer to the south, with 90s for
the Lower Mississippi Valley and along the Gulf Coast.Much above average, hot late-Summer temperatures seen over the
northwestern U.S. this weekend will spread into the northern High Plains
today as a strong upper-level ridge over the West shifts eastward.
Forecast highs are mainly in the 90s, with some upper 90s possible for the
northern High Plains. An approaching Pacific system/associated surface
cold front will help to bring some relief to the northwestern U.S. on
Tuesday as highs drop into the 80s. In addition, the heat combined with
dry conditions and increasing winds ahead of the approaching Pacific
system have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm
Prediction Center for much of the central Great Basin today. Another
Critical Risk also exists over the Black Hills of South Dakota and
northwestern Nebraska given a similar setup with dry conditions and
increasing winds as a trough develops in the lee of the Rockies. Some very
isolated showers and storms today over the Great Basin will become a bit
more numerous into the northern Rockies on Tuesday as the frontal system
pushes eastward. Increasing moisture may lead to some locally heavy
rainfall and an isolated instance or two of flash flooding. Conditions
will generally be dry and at or above average temperature-wise elsewhere
in the West the next couple of days, with highs in the 90s for the central
Great Basin and interior central California and 100s in the Desert
Southwest. Some cooler temperatures over northern California into the
Pacific Northwest today will begin to rebound on Tuesday as another ridge
begins to build along the West Coast in the wake of the passing Pacific
system.To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article.
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
