This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Aug 26 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 26 2024 – 12Z Wed Aug 28 2024...A couple of days of intense heat and humidity expected to impact the
Midwest……Severe storms and isolated flash flooding possible across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest today and the Great Lakes on Tuesday……Daily monsoonal thunderstorms shifting eastward into the southern
Rockies/High Plains…A couple of days of intense heat and humidity are expected to impact the
Midwest as deep southerly flow behind an intensifying upper-level high
unleashes the heat from the southern Plains. Forecast highs in the
mid-90s to near 100 combined with high humidity will send heat indices
into the 105-115 degree range, with widespread heat-related advisories and
warnings in place. Morning lows will also remain very warm, in the mid-
to upper 70s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible both over the Midwest as well
as into portions of the Southeast on Tuesday. Those without efficient
air-conditioning or who must spend time or effort outdoors will be at a
heightened risk of heat-related illness. Remember to drink plenty of
water and seek out relief from the heat. An approaching cold front and
increased storm coverage will help to bring relief to portions of the
upper Midwest on Tuesday. While the southern Plains will see some relief
from the record heat that has plagued the region, conditions will still be
hot with highs generally in the mid to upper 90s.Meanwhile, as upper-level shortwaves eject out of the northern Rockies and
interact with a low pressure wave tracking along a couple of fronts across
the northern Plains, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to impact portions of the northern Plains into the upper Midwest.
The hot temperatures and plentiful moisture ahead of the front will
contribute to strong to extreme instability leading to the potential for
rapid development of severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center is
forecasting an enhanced risk of severe weather from eastern South Dakota
through southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin today into tonight as
the center of the low pressure wave tracks just to the south. Very large
hail, widespread and potentially significant damaging winds with any
organized lines of storms, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. A
broader Slight Risk covers portions of the Upper Midwest and
northern/central Plains for some more isolated instances of large hail and
damaging winds. The upper-level shortwaves will help to erode the
upper-high over the Great Lakes on Tuesday mainly across the Great Lakes.
In addition to severe weather, the plentiful moisture and high instability
will support areas of intense downpours which could organize into more
widespread heavy rain coverage at times, leading to the risk of some
isolated flash flooding each day.Monsoonal thunderstorm chances today are shifting a bit eastward into the
southern Rockies and High Plains, with similar activities returning later
on Tuesday. Some locally heavy downpours remain possible along with the
threat of isolated flash flooding especially across terrain-sensitive
areas along steeper hills/mountain ranges and over burn scars. Some
post-frontal showers and storms are expected into the northern Rockies
through this evening as well. Temperatures over portions of the West will
remain well below average following a frontal passage and under the
influence of an unseasonably strong upper-trough. Forecast highs in the
70s will be common over the northern/central Rockies and eastern Great
Basin. More seasonably warm temperatures will return by Tuesday with highs
back up into the 80s. However, a cold front moving into the Pacific
Northwest will drop highs into the 60s and 70s along with the arrival of
showers and embedded thunderstorms on Tuesday mainly over western
Washington.Elsewhere, instability associated with an upper-level trough dipping into
New England will bring shower and storm chances through this evening with
some moderate to possibly locally heavy rainfall. Some severe storms will
also be possible, with a Slight Risk over southern New England for the
potential of some large hail and damaging winds. Plenty of clouds will
help to keep temperatures cool here compared to elsewhere in the eastern
U.S., with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Daily showers and storms are also
expected over Florida and along the Gulf Coast into south Texas with a
lingering frontal boundary in the region as an upper-level low tracks
westward into southern Texas.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
