This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Aug 21 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 21 2024 – 12Z Fri Aug 23 2024…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Great Basin on Wednesday and expanding into parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies on Thursday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern High Plains on Wednesday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the
Southern Plains…A front over the Northern Rockies will move slowly eastward to the
Northern Plains by Friday. The boundary will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over northeastern Montana and northwestern North Dakota.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains through Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes. However, there is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm
wind gusts 65 knots or greater.In addition, an upper-level low over the Northeast will help create rain
with an embedded thunderstorm over parts of the Northeast through
Thursday. Moreover, upper-level energy over the Middle Mississippi Valley
will move southeastward to the Southeast, developing a weak upper-level
low by Thursday evening. With ample moisture over the area, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast through Friday.Furthermore, monsoonal moisture and upper-level energy will aid in
producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of Arizona
and southern Utah. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Great Basin
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
low-lying areas, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.On Thursday, the monsoonal moisture will extend farther northward over the
area. Likewise, the upper-level energy and monsoonal moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern Utah,
northern Arizona, southwestern Colorado, and northwestern New Mexico.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern
Rockies from Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, low-lying areas, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn
scars the most vulnerable.Moreover, as the front over the Northern High Plains moves eastward on
Thursday, showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Central High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Central
High Plains from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Elsewhere, as upper-level low moves southward along the Northwest Coast
will develop rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Friday.Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Southern Plains will allow high
temperatures to be in the upper 90s and low 100s, with dew points in the
upper 60s and low 70s, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories
over parts of the Southern Plains. Additionally, with low temperatures in
the lower 80s and upper 70s, little relief from the heat will occur
overnight. Therefore, people spending more time or effort outdoors or in a
building without cooling in areas with heat warnings are still at an
increased risk of heat-related illness.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
