This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 17 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 17 2024 – 12Z Mon Aug 19 2024…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday/Sunday and Southwest/Eastern Great Basin on
Saturday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Ohio Valley on Saturday and southern
Mid-Atlantic to Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley…A front extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley and then to the Central High Plains will move eastward
to the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast and southward to the Southern Plains
by Monday. On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the boundary from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the
Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys.Additionally, upper-level energy will intersect a pool of tropical
moisture over the northern Mid-Atlantic, producing heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.Furthermore, the boundary will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of southwestern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, and extreme
north-central Tennessee. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.Moreover, upper-level energy and a plume of monsoonal moisture will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern
Utah and northwestern Arizona. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest
through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.In addition, the energy will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Great Basin. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin through
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal threat
of hail and tornadoes.Also, an upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest Coast and associated
energy will develop showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Oregon
and Washington State on Saturday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Pacific
Northwest through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.On Sunday, as the front moves into the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Lower
Mississippi Valley, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of the boundary. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic to Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.Further, a strong pool of moisture will be over the Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday, aiding in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over
parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will create showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Eastern Great Basin, and
Central Rockies from late afternoon into late evening on Sunday.
Additionally, the upper-level low over the Northwest will produce rain,
with maybe an embedded thunderstorm over the region on Sunday.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging over parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley will produce high temperatures in the upper-90s
to low-100s with dew points in the low to mid-70s have prompted Excessive
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. The sweltering summer heat will continue over
the south. A prolonged stretch of high temperatures in the upper 90s and
triple digits will be focused over portions of the Southern Plains and
Gulf Coast through Monday. Low temperatures in the low-80s/upper-70s are
also forecast along the Gulf Coast, providing little relief from the heat
overnight. Moreover, the combination of summer heat and high humidity will
support daily maximum heat indices near 110F. People spending more time or
effort outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an increased risk
of heat-related illness.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
