This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 11 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 11 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 13 2024…Scattered thunderstorms capable of containing locally heavy rainfall
are forecast across much of the Southwest, Intermountain West, and
Plains……Lingering flash flood potential exists across the coastal Carolinas
over the next few days……Sultry summer heat returns to much of the Southern Plains and central
Gulf Coast States this week…The weather pattern through early this week will feature daily chances for
thunderstorms from the Southwest and Intermountain West into the Plains,
as well as Florida and coastal sections of the Southeast. An upper level
low in southeast Canada will also provide scattered precipitation chances
to the Great Lakes and Northeast. Anomalous atmospheric moisture content
throughout the Southwest and Great Basin when combined with shortwaves
riding overtop of an upper ridge set up over the region will provide
enough coverage of thunderstorms to support the potential for scattered
flash flooding today from northwest Arizona to central Utah. Complex
terrain and the sensitive slot canyon region of Utah increase the threat
for flooding impacts. Additional chances for heavy rain extend to the
southern California ranges and the remainder of the Southwest and Four
Corners region over the next few days. Meanwhile, northwest flow aloft and
nearby frontal boundaries will help aid thunderstorm development across
the Great Plains. A few rounds of organized convection north of a warm
front forecast to stretch from Oklahoma to the lower Mississippi Valley
could lead to instances of flash flooding through tonight across parts of
eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northwest
Arkansas. Localized downpours associated with thunderstorm activity are
also possible throughout the remainder of the central and northern Plains
today, with isolated severe storms a possibility for the central High
Plains into the Black Hills region. This unsettled weather pattern is
anticipated to remain in place early this week across the central United
States.A lingering frontal boundary draped across the Southeast will provide a
focus for additional thunderstorm activity over the next few days,
overlapping with saturated ground conditions from last week’s widespread
heavy rainfall. As a result, localized downpours could result in
additional flash flooding throughout the coastal Carolinas. Residents and
visitors are reminded to avoid driving through flooded roadways and to not
swim or play in floodwater.For much of the Nation, summer heat will be on hold to start the week as a
cooler weather pattern takes shape compared to previous weeks. However,
building heat will be felt throughout the southern Plains and Deep South
as highs soar back into the upper 90s and triple digits by Monday. When
combined with elevated humidity levels, afternoons will feel closer to
heat index values of 110 degrees in the lower Mississippi Valley and
immediate Gulf Coast. It is also worth noting that overnight temperatures
will not offer much relief as lows only dip into the upper 70s and low
80s. This level of heat could affect anyone without effective cooling
and/or hydration, so it is important to follow proper heat safety tips and
check on vulnerable individuals.Elsewhere, poor air quality due to ongoing wildfires throughout the
northern Great Basin is expected to continue. Upper level winds are
forecast to carry smoke eastward over parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
and Mid-Atlantic, leading to hazy skies for some locations.To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article.
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
| Tropical Weather Outlook Text |
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): A broad area of showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early part of this week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system and watches could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today. The system is forecast to then move generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Papin
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
