This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Thu Aug 08 2024 – 00Z Sat Aug 10 2024…Debby to move slowly inland through northeast South Carolina into
western North Carolina Wednesday night-Thursday, then more rapidly
northeastward Friday-Saturday from the Central Appalachians into Northern
New England……Heavy rains, flash and river flooding likely along and to the north and
northeast of Debby, while isolated tornadoes possible to the east of the
track……Much above average temperatures to persist next two days across much of
the West into the Southern Plains and South, while below average
temperatures spread across the Northern and Central Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley……Record heat coming to and end from the Southwest into the South by the
end of the week……Fire weather threat and poor air quality continue from the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin…Debby will make its second U.S. landfall Wednesday evening along the South
Carolina coast and push slowly northwestward through northeast South
Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday, across western North Carolina
during Thursday and then accelerate to the northeast from the Central
Appalachians into Northern New England Friday into Saturday. Sustained
winds with Debby will be lessening as the storm pushes inland and weakens,
with heavy rains, flash flooding and river flooding being the primary
threat as the system pushes northwestward and then more to the north and
northeast over the next few days. The continued slow motions of Debby
through Thursday will produce rainfall totals in the 4-8 inch range, with
locally heavier amounts, across northeast South Carolina, southeast to
central North Carolina into western Virginia, eastern West Virginia and
far western Maryland. Flood watches are currently in effect across these
areas, affecting approximately 19 million people. As the storm begins to
accelerate to the northeast on Friday through the northern Mid-Atlantic,
northern NY State and northern New England, expected precipitation amounts
will likely be less than when the storm is slower moving. Still, rainfall
totals of 2-4″ likely across central to eastern Pennsylvania, central to
northern NY State into northern New England, continuing the threat of
flash and river flooding across these areas.No let up to the much above average temperatures over the next two days
across much of the West into the Southern Plains and South, with record
high potential Thursday across portions of Texas and the northeast Gulf
Coast from southeast Louisiana into North Florida and again on Friday from
southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. While temperatures are
still above average from the West into the South over the next few days,
it does appear that record high potential will be coming to an end by the
weekend, Heat advisories are currently in effect across the Southern
Plains into the South, affecting nearly 44 million people.In contrast to the much above average temperatures and record heat across
the South, much cooler air will continue to sink southward in the wake of
a strong front currently stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley into
the Northern Plains. This strong front will push much below average
temperatures southward into the Central Plains and Upper to Mid
Mississippi Valley over the next two days. There is even potential for a
few record cold maximum temperatures on Thursday and Friday from southeast
Wyoming into southwest to southern Nebraska and across northern Minnesota.No let up to the fire weather risk and poor air quality from ongoing fires
for the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.
These regions will continue to see dry conditions with low relative
humidities and gusty winds, supporting the threat for additional wildfires
and exacerbating efforts to control ongoing fires. Red Flag warnings and
air quality alerts are in effect across portions of Washington State,
Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and Arizona.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article.
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
