This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 06 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024 – 12Z Thu Aug 08 2024…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause potentially catastrophic
Flash and Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds
across portions of north Florida and the Southeast……There’s potential for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms
across portions of the Northern High Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today……There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Central/Southeastern
California and the Southwest; Heat Advisories over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to track up along the Southeast Coast
over the next couple of days. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across
southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely
result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in considerable flooding impacts from northern North Carolina
through portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through
Sunday morning. Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10-20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches. A High Risk (at
least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for parts of southeastern Georgia through eastern South Carolina and into
far southeastern North Carolina today. On Wednesday, another High Risk
will encircle portions of South Carolinas central coast up into
southeastern North Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov.A cold front will stall out over the Northeast and act as a focus for
thunderstorm activity from the Ohio Valley through the northern
Mid-Atlantic and into parts of the Tri-State area today. Tropical moisture
from Debby will interact with the stationary front in the Northeast and
likely generate heavy rainfall over parts of eastern Pennsylvania,
northern Maryland, New Jersey, and the NYC metro area. A Moderate Risk (at
least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for the aforementioned areas. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of northern Ohio,
Pennsylvania and western/northern New Jersey, where damaging wind gusts
and hail are possible. A Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall
is also in effect for parts of southern New Jersey, northeastern Maryland
and northern Delaware, where lingering showers may produce isolated flash
flooding Wednesday morning before the stationary front turns cold and
moves offshore.Elsewhere, mid-level energy propagating over the Northern High Plains will
support thunderstorm activity today. The Storm Prediction Center issued a
Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
strong to severe wind outflow gusts with this activity. Isolated instances
of Flash Flooding are also possible from these storms. Surface high
pressure will penetrate the Northern/Central Plains over the coming days,
and usher in a cooler airmass with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s,
representing a 15-25 degree departure from normal. Warm air will remain
locked in over much of the southern tier states with a heat wave
developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.Monsoonal storms are forecast to continue across parts of the Southwest
and Four Corners this week. Shortwave energy will promote excessive
rainfall across southern Arizona today. A Slight Risk of Flash Flooding is
in effect for far southern Arizona as a result. Upper-level ridging across
much of the Southwestern United States will continue to generate Excessive
Heat, particularly across portions of central and southern California,
into the Desert Southwest and the Intermountain West where Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
