This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 04 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 04 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause considerable Flash and Urban
Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across portions
of Florida and the Southeast Coast beginning today……Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Upper
Midwest across the Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast on Monday
and Tuesday…Tropical Storm Debby is currently forecast to strengthen while it tracks
along Florida’s Gulf Coast today. Debby may intensify into a Hurricane
Monday morning before making landfall near Florida’s Big Bend region,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life threatening storm-surge
inundation is possible along portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast from Aripeka
to Indian Pass. Strong winds will likely cause significant damage to
unprotected infrastructure along the storm’s path. There’s a potential for
isolated tornadoes across western and northern portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Monday, which is consistent with the Storm Prediction
Center’s convective outlooks, which depict Slight Risks (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms for those days. There is a Moderate Risk (at least
40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding across portions of
northwestern Florida today where the bulk of Debby’s precip shield will
cause impacts. Debbie is forecast to slow and cause considerable to
historic Flash, Urban and river Flooding across portions of northern
Florida through southeastern Georgia and into coastal South Carolina on
Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of coastal
Georgia and South Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.govElsewhere, a low pressure system, emerging from the Northern High Plains,
will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northern
Plains tonight before spreading storms into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes
and interior Northeast on Monday. There’s a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall as well as a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday.
Downstream of this, the attendant stationary front draped across the
interior Northeast will be the focus for more severe storms from Lake Erie
to New England where another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in
effect.High temperatures will be below average across the northern tier states
this week in response to unsettled weather associated with the
aforementioned storms in the Northern Plains. Temperatures in the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley will be above
average as southerly flow persists out ahead of the descending cold front
to the north. Numerous warm overnight lows may tie or break existing
records in the Desert Southwest over the next couple of nights. Monsoonal
rain continues over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region this
week with isolated Flash Flooding possible over vulnerable surfaces
including burn scars and slot canyons.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
