This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024
Valid 00Z Wed Jul 31 2024 – 00Z Fri Aug 02 2024…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday evening and
Wednesday with a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio Valley on Thursday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday evening and
Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England and Southwest on Wednesday and over parts of the Ohio Valley on
Thursday……There are Excessive Heat Watches over parts of the Pacific Northwest
and Excessive Heat Warnings/Advisories over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the
Southeast.A front with a wave of low pressure over the Northern High Plains will
move slowly eastward to the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes by Thursday. The
associated boundary will aid in triggering showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley,
and parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains
and Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, there is a
threat of severe thunderstorm wind gust of 65 knots, or greater over parts
of the Central Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley and hail two inches, or
greater over parts of the Central Plains.In addition, showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.A second area of severe thunderstorms is forecast over parts of the
Northern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through
Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.As the wave of low-pressure moves eastward overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday, the system will create showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Middle
Mississippi Valley from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorms wind gust of 65 knots or greater
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley. Additionally, there is a threat of hail two inches or greater over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley.Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Northern Plains, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of these areas from Wednesday through Thursday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, upper-level energy and a plume of moisture moving over New
England will produce areas of heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern New
England from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Similarly, upper-level energy and a plume of moisture will create areas of
heavy rain over parts of the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest
from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.On Thursday, the wave of low pressure continues to move eastward,
producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley.
Therefore, on Thursday, the SPC issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Pacific Northwest,
spawning Excessive Heat Watches over parts of the region. The upper-level
ridging will aid in creating intense and widespread heat across portions
of the West late this week. High temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal
are expected across the Northwest and Northern High Plains later this
week, where several daily record high temperatures are forecast.Moreover, the upper-level high will develop over the central portion of
the country, which will foster Excessive Heat Warnings/ Heat Advisories
over parts of the Central/Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Southeast. The associated
dangerous heat, with high temperatures exceeding 100F and heat indices
near 110F, persists over the South-Central Plains and Mid-South through
Thursday. Multiple days of Major to Extreme HeatRisk are forecast for
portions of the southern Plains to the Southeast. These levels of heat
mean health impacts become more likely in general, and may occur in ANYONE
without adequate hydration or cooling
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
