This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 29 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 29 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 31 2024…Flash flooding possible in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and
central/southern Appalachians through early this week……Scattered severe thunderstorms forecast across portions of the Northern
Plains Monday and Upper Midwest Tuesday……Dangerous mid-summer heat wave to begin expanding across the central
U.S. on Monday…Bouts of thunderstorms are expected to continue over portions of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and spread further into the central/southern
Appalachians to start off the work week. An active upper-level pattern
featuring at least a couple shortwaves and an approaching surface frontal
system from the west will help to focus storm development over the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and eventually into the southern Appalachians
Monday. Plentiful moisture in place will also continue to lead to the
threat of heavier rain rates, with increasing storm coverage into the
evening and potential back building/repeated rounds of storms raising the
chance for locally heavy rainfall totals. As such, a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place for the threat of some
scattered flash flooding. In addition, sufficient instability/shear will
be in place over the Ohio Valley for a couple more intense storms, as well
as the threat for a more organized storm complex later Monday evening. The
Storm Prediction Center has included a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
weather as well mainly for the threat of damaging winds. A similar pattern
will be in place on Tuesday, with the focus shifting further into the
southern and central Appalachians as the upper-level energy and surface
frontal system move eastward. Another Slight Risk of Exessive Rainfall is
in effect here for additional instances of flash flooding. Outside of the
flash flooding threat, scattered thunderstorms with moderate to locally
heavy rainfall are expected more broadly over the Midwest/Southeast
Monday, and also over portions of New England as a coastal low approaches.
Rain chances will expand over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as the system
approaches from the west on Tuesday. Forecast high temperatures across the
East will vary depending on cloud/storm coverage, with mostly mid-80s to
low 90s expected.Some additional storms will be possible further west along the frontal
boundary into the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains. Embedded upper-level
energy will help to trigger one round of storms over the Northern Plains
on Monday. Stronger upper-level flow will lead to more deep-layer shear
here than further east, with another Slight Risk of severe weather for the
threat of some very large hail as well as significant damaging winds if
storms consolidate/grow upscale into an organized system later in the
evening. Another round of severe weather is possible downstream over the
Upper Midwest Tuesday as yet another upper-level impulse helps to trigger
storms along the frontal boundary. Very high moisture will lead to strong
to extreme instability, with a Slight Risk in place for the chance of more
damaging winds.Outside of the severe weather threat, heat will become the big story more
broadly over the central U.S. over the next few days as an upper-level
high strengthens/expands over the region. Forecast high temperatures
Monday and Tuesday are expected to soar into the low to mid-100s over the
Central Plains, with upper-90s to low 100s to the west over much of the
High Plains, and mid- to upper 90s for the Middle and Lower Mississippi
Valley. High humidity values over the Mississippi Valley and eastern
portions of the plains will lead to heat indices in the 105-110 degree
range, potentially as high as 115 for some locations, with widespread
heat-related warnings/advisories in place. Warm morning lows only dropping
into the mid- to upper 70s will provide little relief from the heat
overnight. This combination of hotter temperatures to the west, higher
heat indices to the east, and the multi-day duration of this heat wave
will increase the danger not only to more sensitive groups, but also the
general public, particularly those without adequate air conditioning.A stagnant troughing pattern over the West will keep temperatures mostly
below average across the region, especially over portions of the Pacific
Northwest and northern Great Basin/Rockies. Forecast highs Monday-Tuesday
range between the 60s and 70s along the Pacific Coast, the 70s and 80s in
the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin/Rockies, the 80s and 90s
for interior California and the central Great Basin/Four Corners Region,
and 100s in the Desert Southwest. A cold front passing through the Pacific
Northwest will bring some rain chances on Monday, spreading into the
northern Rockies Tuesday. Smoke from area wildfires will also continue to
plague parts of the West, particularly over portions of the northern Great
Basin, resulting in poor air quality and areas of reduced visibility.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
