This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 26 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jul 26 2024 – 12Z Sun Jul 28 2024…Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the South
with a risk for flash flooding Friday in the coastal Carolinas and
southeastern Texas……Storm chances for portions of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains
heading into the weekend with severe weather possible Saturday……Monsoonal thunderstorms continue for portions of the Intermountain West
with isolated flash flooding possible…Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the South
along and ahead of a cold front slowly pushing southward through the
region. Plentiful moisture will bring the threat of some locally heavy
downpours. A couple upper-level waves, one over the Carolinas and another
to the west over the Southern Plains, will help to provide a focus for
some locally more widespread, intense downpours along the coastal
Carolinas and southeastern Texas. Wet antecedent conditions from rainfall
the past few days will increase the risk for some scattered flash
flooding, with Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place. An
isolated threat for flash flooding will exist more broadly across the
region both Friday and Saturday. The presence of storms and general
cloudiness will help to keep temperatures near or below Summer-time
averages, especially over portions of eastern and central Texas, with
highs generally in the 80s.A frontal boundary draped across the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains will be
the focus for daily thunderstorm chances heading into the weekend. More
widely scattered storms are expected Friday before a passing upper-level
shortwave helps to encourage more widespread storms on Saturday.
Sufficient instability along with the arrival of stronger winds aloft
bringing increasing deep-layer shear is expected to result in at least a
few more intense thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) for portions of northwestern
Minnesota and eastern North Dakota for the threat of some large hail as
well as damaging winds, particularly if storms can organize into a
convective system into the evening hours. High temperatures will remain
rather hot across the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with
highs in the 90s upwards of 10-15 degrees above average.Monsoonal showers will continue across portions of the Intermountain West
Friday and Saturday, particularly from the Southwest north through the
Rockies and central Great Basin. Deep moisture lingering through the area
will bring the threat for some locally intense downpours. Isolated
instances of flash flooding will remain possible, particularly for terrain
sensitive areas such as burn scars. Forecast highs across the West will
generally be below average with an upper-level trough overhead, with highs
in the 80s and 90s across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and
interior California, and 60s and 70s along the Pacific Coast. The Desert
Southwest will be much hotter, with highs in the low to mid-110s.
Elsewhere, conditions will be mostly dry from the Midwest to the Northeast
under the presence of high pressure. Forecast high temperatures Friday
will be a bit below average, with low to mid-80s forecast. Highs will warm
up a bit on Saturday, reaching into the mid- to upper 80s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
