This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jul 25 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 25 2024 – 12Z Sat Jul 27 2024…Another day of major to locally extreme Heat Risk across the northern
High Plains before cooler air arrives behind a cold front……Excessive Rainfall is forecast for the Texas coast through tonight with
more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern tier states
to the East Coast……Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the
Four Corners region with threats of localized flash flooding while fire
weather danger emerges over the interior Northwest…A slow-to-evolve summertime weather pattern will continue across much of
the U.S. mainland while a more progressive Pacific cold front sweeps
across the northwestern part of the country through the next couple of
days. Under this weather pattern, unsettled weather and relatively cool
temperatures for July will continue across the South as well as the Great
Lakes. The stronger forcing associated with the Pacific front will push
the heat dome into the northern High Plains today behind a warm front,
resulting in another day of major to locally extreme Heat Risk for the
region. High temperatures will once again reach well up into the 100s with
little to no rainfall expected. Meanwhile, the heat will continue to
become less intense over the Central Valley of California and the Desert
Southwest. Some of the hot air over the northern Plains will be pushed
into the upper Midwest by the weekend with highs reaching into the 80s and
90s. Please continue to practice heat safety before cooler air arrives
behind the cold front.The Pacific cold front currently making its way through the northern
Rockies into the High Plains will gradually become nearly stationary
through the next couple of days. Lightning associated with dry
thunderstorms triggered by the passage of the cold front will raise fire
danger concerns over the interior northwestern U.S. into the northern High
Plains. Farther south, monsoonal thunderstorms across the Great Basin
today will shift farther eastward into the Four Corners and as far north
as Wyoming through the next couple of days.In contrast to the heat in the West, cooler than normal temperatures will
prevail across the mid-section of the country and portions of the eastern
U.S. where a stalled front will keep plenty of clouds along with scattered
thunderstorms. It appears that coastal sections of Texas will see the
highest chance of receiving heavy rainfall today into tonight as some
influx of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico could interact with
the weak front under a broad upper-level southwesterly flow ahead of a
trough. A moderate risk of excessive rainfall remains in place from the
mid and upper Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana through tonight.
Thunderstorms across other areas of the southern tier states are not
expected to be severe, but they could result in localized flooding issues
from time to time. The same is true along the East Coast with a slight
risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Carolinas through Friday
night where storms are expected to be more numerous. Meanwhile, showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms today across New England will clear out
by Friday as a low pressure wave moves away into eastern Canada.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
