This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 17 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 19 2024…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic to New England on Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic, Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern High
Plains/Southern Rockies on Wednesday and over the southern Mid-Atlantic
and Southern Rockies on Thursday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Southern Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast, and New England Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast…A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley across the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Southern Plains will move slowly off the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Also, on Friday, the southern
half of the boundary will linger near the Southeast and across the Gulf
Coast States. The boundary will produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
Northern New England to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts and a minimal threat for hail and tornadoes.In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.A Second area of heavy rain will develop along the front over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, a third area of heavy rain will develop near the boundary over
parts of the Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies through Thursday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars the most vulnerable.Furthermore, moisture over the Southwest and daytime heating will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest late
afternoon into late evening. Additionally, on Wednesday, upper-level
impulses and tropical moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Southeast.On Thursday, as the front moves southeastward, showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic
from Thursday through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of hail and tornadoes.The showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.A second area of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains as moisture interacts with
upper-level impulses. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level
1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains from Thursday through Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Likewise, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies from
Thursday through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars the most vulnerable.Meanwhile, upper-level ridging will build over the Northwest, spawning
Heat Advisories over the region from Wednesday into Friday. Moreover, a
flat upper-level ridge extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East Coast part of the country. The heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A second
area of heat has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat
Advisories extending from the Mid-Atlantic to parts of New England. On
Wednesday, the near-record temperatures and high humidity suggest Major to
Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the East. Extremely dangerous
and potentially deadly heat, particularly for urban areas in the Southeast
and East Coast, are forecast. Many daily record highs are possible for the
East Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief
from the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration. However, a strong cold front will bring
relief as it sweeps across most of the Eastern U.S. from Wednesday into
Thursday. This front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
Some thunderstorms could be severe, especially in the Northeast.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
