This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 17 2024…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes on
Monday and a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern
Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast and over portions of the Central
High Plains on Tuesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday and the Middle
Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley on Tuesday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of
the Western Ohio Valley/Western Tennessee Valley…A front extending from the Great Lakes across the Middle Mississippi
Valley into the Northern Plains will move to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley across the Middle Mississippi Valley and trail off into the
Northern Plains by Wednesday. A wave of low pressure over the Northern
Plains will move northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Monday evening,
bringing the cold front northward into the Upper Great Lakes to the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. On Monday, the boundary will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore, the SPC has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there
is an increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or
greater, mainly over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio
Valley.In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Furthermore, on Monday, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Central Gulf Coast
eastward to the Southeast. Additionally, moisture over the Southwest and
diurnal heating will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central/Southern Rockies.On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms reduces slightly. As the
front moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Eastern Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast from Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.Moreover, as the western end of the front moves across the Central High
Plains, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the region.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the over parts of the Central High Plains from
Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Also, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast. Further, moisture over the
Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies, along with diurnal heating,
will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.Meanwhile, a flat upper-level ridge extending from the Four Corners Region
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will aid in creating a major to
extreme HeatRisk for the East part of the country. The developing heat has
prompted Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic to New England and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Western Ohio
Valley/Western Tennessee Valley. The near-record temperatures and high
humidity suggest Major to Extreme HeatRisk conditions for portions of the
East, Monday and Tuesday. Extremely dangerous and potentially deadly heat,
particularly for urban areas in the Southeast and East Coast, are forecast
for Monday and Tuesday. Many daily record highs are possible for the East
Coast, and numerous warm overnight lows will provide little relief from
the heat overnight. Heat stress will build rapidly for those without
adequate cooling or hydration.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
