This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 10 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 12 2024…Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl to bring Severe Thunderstorms, heavy rain
and flooding to parts of the Midwest, eastern Great Lakes, and Northeast
today……Dangerous heat and record high temperatures to continue for much of the
West through the end of the work week……Major to Extreme HeatRisk over portions of the East Coast today…
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue northeastward through Ohio and
into Ontario and rainfall will increase over northern areas of New York
into New England. Thunderstorms could be severe in some parts of the Lower
Great Lakes/interior Northeast, with some tornado potential. The Storm
Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for these areas as a
result. The flash flooding threat will be greater over parts of
northeastern New York into northern Vermont/New Hampshire, where a
Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect.
Elsewhere, showers and some thunderstorms are possible over parts of New
Mexico, along the Gulf Coast, and into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. A
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect over
portions of south-central New Mexico where heavy rainfall over the
Sacramento Mountains and adjacent burn scars could trigger Flash Flooding.
Things settle down considerably over the Northeast by Thursday.In the West, the intense heat will continue for at least a few more days,
with temperatures well above normal and reaching or exceeding daily record
highs over many locations from Mexico to Canada west of the Rockies.
Excessive heat warnings or heat advisories are in effect for much of the
area outside the high mountains, even including the foothills.
Temperatures well into the 100s/110s will be commonplace, resulting in a
widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. In addition to the record high daily
temperatures, the early morning lows are also expected to set records
across large portions of the West over the coming few mornings. The
multi-day length and record warm overnight temperatures will continue to
cause heat stress to anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.Temperatures will be cooler than average along the path of Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl thanks to overcast skies and rain. Ahead of its path, the
East Coast will see another day of warm/hot temperatures well into the 90s
from the Mid-Atlantic southward through the Carolinas. The high humidity
values will result in heat index values over 100F for many of these areas.
This will also promote many record high minimum temperatures that only dip
into the mid/upper 70s at night (and near 80 in some urban centers such as
Baltimore and Washington, D.C.). Heat advisories are in effect for much of
the I-95 corridor between the Appalachians and the coast, while Excessive
Heat Warnings are in effect for Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.
By Thursday, temperatures may cool by a couple degrees as the cold front
associated with Beryl reaches the East Coast but may stall across the
region. This could finally bring some much needed rain to the
Mid-Atlantic, with isolated flash flooding possible over parts of the
Virginia/Carolina Tidewater.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
