This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jul 03 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 03 2024 – 12Z Fri Jul 05 2024…Dangerous heatwave to impact much of the West, while oppressive heat
and humidity also swelter areas from the Southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic……Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible over the next few days
across portions of the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley…Record-breaking and dangerous heat is forecast to make this Fourth of July
week a scorcher across much of the West and from the southern Plains to
the Mid-Atlantic. Over 110 million residents are currently under
heat-related watches, warnings, and advisories throughout 21 states as of
early this morning. An upper-level high situated just off the West Coast
today is forecast to strengthen and reorient directly over the western
U.S. by the end of the week. This pattern will support well above average
temperatures over California today before heat spreads further along the
West Coast by the end of the week. High temperatures are forecast to reach
into the 105-115F range throughout interior California away from the
immediate coastline, as well as into much of the Desert Southwest.
Afternoon temperatures will also begin to increase across much of Oregon
and Washington by Thursday and Friday, with widespread highs soaring into
the 90s. Dozens of record highs are possible, expressing the rarity of
this early-July heatwave. The duration of this heat is also concerning as
scorching above average temperatures are forecast to linger into next
week. Heat impacts can compound over time, therefore it is important to
remain weather aware and follow the advice of local officials. This level
of heat throughout the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys of California
could pose a risk to anyone if proper heat safety is not followed. This
includes staying hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in buildings with
sufficient air-conditioning. It is also very important to check on the
safety of vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors.Oppressive heat and humidity will also be found throughout the southern
Plains and lower Mississippi Valley into the Independence Day holiday
while also expanding eastward to the Mid-Atlantic for the end of the week.
High temperatures rising into the upper 90s and low 100s are expected,
with heat indices soaring into the 110s across the lower Mississippi
Valley. Warm overnight conditions in the upper 70s and low 80s will offer
little relief, leading to a dangerous situation for those without access
to adequate cooling. A cold front entering the southern Plains is
anticipated to offer cooler and below average temperatures to Oklahoma and
much of northern/western Texas by Friday.An active and stormy weather pattern over the central U.S. is expected to
create chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, which could
impact holiday gatherings this week. A developing area of low pressure
over the central High Plains today forecast to progress into the upper
Midwest by Thursday along with a lingering frontal boundary stretching
from the lower Great Lakes to the central Plains are anticipated to be the
triggers for some meteorological fireworks. For today, the best chances
for scattered flash flooding due to thunderstorms capable of producing
intense rainfall rates is forecast between eastern Kansas and the Ohio
Valley along the aforementioned frontal boundary. Instances of severe
weather (mainly associated with damaging wind gusts) are also possible,
with chances for severe storms also located in parts of the
northern/central High Plains closer to the developing low pressure system.
By Independence Day, thunderstorm chances span from the southern
Plains/Rockies to the middle/upper Mississippi Valley and also eastward to
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. However, the greatest threat for strong
thunderstorms turning severe resides over parts of eastern Kansas,
northeast Oklahoma, and southern/central Missouri. Damaging wind gusts and
frequent lightning are the most likely weather hazard associated with
these Fourth of July storms, with isolated strong storms also possible
into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding will
remain a concern throughout the upper Midwest as well due to yet another
round of thunderstorms overlapping areas dealing with ongoing river
flooding and saturated soils. Portions of southern Minnesota, eastern
South Dakota, western Wisconsin, and northern Iowa currently have the
highest probabilities (70-90%) for at least 1 inch of rain on Thursday.
Residents and visitors located within areas expecting severe weather
and/or heavy rainfall this week are advised to remain weather aware, have
multiple ways to receive warnings, and never drive across flooded
roadways.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
