This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 01 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 01 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 03 2024…Dangerously hot conditions will continue across the southern Plains and
lower Mississippi Valley, while simmering heat builds throughout
California’s Central Valley starting Tuesday……Heavy rain and flash flooding likely across parts of the Southeast
coastline today……Severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat situated over northern Plains
and Midwest early this week…July kicks off with anomalous and potentially dangerous heat impacting the
south-central U.S. and portions of the West Coast. As of this morning,
over 50 million residents are under heat-related watches, warnings, and
advisories. The upper-level pattern throughout the next few days
responsible for the summer heat consists of ridging just off the West
Coast and over the lower Mississippi Valley, while an upper trough
situates over the northern Rockies and northern Plains. For the central
U.S., high temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 90s and low
100s across the southern Plains through midweek. When combined with
elevated humidity levels, heat indices are forecast to rise into the 110s
across the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories currently span from Kansas to the Gulf Coast
States. After enjoying a refreshing start to the workweek, the Midwest and
East Coast can expect a gradual return to muggy summer warmth by Wednesday
as surface high pressure reorients itself off the East Coast and ushers in
southerly flow. Extreme heat building throughout the West Coast and more
specifically interior California this week will also be particularly
dangerous for those without effective cooling. High temperatures away from
the immediate coastline are forecast to reach into the 100-110F range,
which could break numerous daily records in the San Joaquin and Sacramento
valleys on Tuesday and Wednesday. Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and
Heat Advisories go into effect as early as Tuesday and span from southern
Oregon to the low desert of southeast California. The duration of this
heat wave is concerning as the current forecast keeps scorching conditions
in place through at least the end of the week. This level of heat could
pose a danger to the entire population if proper heat safety is not
followed. This includes staying hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in
properly air-conditioned buildings. Additionally, it is very important to
check on vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors to confirm their safety.A cold front sliding down the East Coast today is forecast to slow its
southerly motion as it intersects the Southeast coastline, with developing
thunderstorms along the boundary. Some storms are expected to contain
intense rainfall rates and slow propagation, which creates the threat for
flash flooding. Parts of the South Carolina coastline, including the city
of Charleston, has been highlighted as having a Moderate Risk (level 3/4)
of Excessive Rainfall today. Areas most at risk for flooding are locations
with poor drainage, where heavy rainfall coincides with the afternoon high
tide, and in urbanized communities. Be sure to remain weather aware and
always remember to never drive through flooded roads.Additionally, a storm system exiting the northern Rockies this morning is
anticipated to create some pre-Independence Day fireworks across the
northern Plains and Midwest through midweek as the threat of heavy rain
and severe weather slides eastward with time. Severe thunderstorm chances
are centered over Nebraska South Dakota today, with neighboring states
included in the potential for potent thunderstorms capable of containing
damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail. Of potentially greater concern
throughout the upper Mississippi Valley is the prospect for more heavy
rainfall over saturated soils and swollen rivers. As approaching frontal
boundaries provide a focus for several clusters of thunderstorms, areas of
intense rainfall rates are possible throughout the northern Plains and
upper Midwest today before sliding gradually eastward on Tuesday, but
still remaining centered over the Midwest. Probabilities for at least 1
inch of rain are high (70-90%) for much of Iowa, eastern Nebraska,
southern Minnesota, central/southern Wisconsin, and far northwest Illinois
through Tuesday. This next round of heavy rain could create instances of
flash flooding as well as exacerbate ongoing river flooding across areas
still recovering from last weeks heavy rainfall.Continued sufficient moisture content over the Southwest and southern
Rockies will also aid in daily showers and thunderstorms capable of
producing localized instances of flash flooding. Regions most likely to be
affected by scattered downpours include Arizona, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado, with burn scars and sensitive terrain the most at
risk for flash flooding.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
