This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Fri Jun 28 2024 – 00Z Sun Jun 30 2024…Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected across portions of the
northern/central Plains today and into the Midwest Friday……Dangerously hot conditions will continue for parts of the South and
Southeast……Monsoon-like conditions persist today in the Four Corners region…
A strong upper level trough is swinging across the Pacific Northwest today
and pushing a surface frontal system southeast across the Intermountain
West into the northern and central Plains. Conditions will be supportive
of severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the
Plains, and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the
northern and central Plains with an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms today. Potential severe storm hazards will include very
large hail, significant damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Locally heavy
downpours may lead to scattered instances of flash flooding across
portions of the Plains, especially where soils are saturated from recent
heavy rains. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook includes two Slight Risk
areas (level 2/4) in the northern and central Plains where flash flooding
will be most likely.The Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today also highlights a Slight Risk
area (level 2/4) over the Four Corners region where persistent
monsoon-like rains are ongoing. Precipitation chances will decrease on
Friday for the Four Corners region as the frontal system approaches from
the north, but the front is forecast to stall and lift back northwards as
a warm front over the weekend. This will allow moisture to stream into the
Southwest ahead of the front, continuing rain chances in portions of
Arizona and New Mexico through the weekend.The frontal system will push across much of the Central U.S. and lift a
warm front north across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday.
Precipitation chances will spread east as the system progresses, expanding
the severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threats into portions of the
Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms from the central Plains towards the Middle/Upper
Mississippi Valley on Friday, and WPC has a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall for this area as well. Potential storm hazards will be
large hail, damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and locally heavy rain.This weekend, the broad frontal system will push into the eastern U.S.
while the back end lifts north across the Intermountain West.
Precipitation chances will extend from the Northeast down across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the central/southern Plains and Southwest. The
potential for severe weather will decrease as the upper level energy
becomes less organized, and the Storm Prediction Center has only a small
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of Ohio and
western Pennsylvania. The risk for flash flooding will decrease as well,
and only isolated instances of flash flooding are anticipated along the
frontal system.Temperature-wise, dangerously hot conditions will persist across parts of
the South and Southeast through the weekend. High temperatures near 100
degrees will be common across the southern Plains and Texas, and high
temperatures will likely reach above 90 degrees each day in much of the
Southeast. High humidity will make these temperatures feel even hotter,
and heat indices may reach as high as 105-110 degrees. Daily summertime
convection will bring some relief to the Southeast, but mainly dry
conditions are forecast across Texas through the weekend. Overnight lows
will also remain above average in the 70s and 80s, providing little relief
from the heat.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
