This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jun 24 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 24 2024 – 12Z Wed Jun 26 2024…Heat wave focus shifts to the Southeast, Mid-South, and
central/southern Plains early this week……Severe storms for portions of the Upper Midwest on Monday, with an
increasing flash flooding threat for the Midwest Tuesday……Monsoon-like conditions persist for the Southwest/Four Corners Region…
As an upper-level trough moves over the northeastern U.S., bringing relief
from the heat over the weekend, a broad upper-level ridge will build over
the central/western U.S., shifting the focus for the ongoing heat wave to
the Southeast, Mid-South, and central/southern Plains early this week.
Forecast high temperatures will continue to soar into the upper 90s over
the region, with low 100s possible over the central Plains. When combined
with the humidity, heat index values may reach as high as 110, prompting
widespread Heat Advisories. Meanwhile, low temperatures will mostly remain
in the mid- to upper 70s, bringing little relief from the heat overnight.
The arrival of this more intense heat early in the Summer season leads to
a higher level of heat-related stress, especially for those outdoors and
without reliable air conditioning available.To the north, an upper-level shortwave and accompanying surface frontal
system will move along the northern tier of the central U.S. towards the
Upper Midwest during the day Monday. Deep moisture flowing northward ahead
of the system will bring increasing storm chances by later Monday
afternoon and into Monday evening. Hot temperatures along with the
plentiful moisture will lead to strong to extreme instability, prompting a
Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction
Center. Very large hail and significant damaging winds can be expected
with any storms, and possibly a tornado. A potentially higher threat of
damaging winds exists if enough storms develop and evolve into an
organized convective system. Locally heavy downpours can also be expected,
with an isolated risk of flash flooding especially if storms are able to
become more organized and widespread. The system will continue eastward on
Tuesday, with a cold front pushing southeastward into the Midwest/Great
Lakes region. Storms developing along and ahead of the front will tend to
repeat over the same areas as storm motions become more parallel to the
increasingly east-to-westward oriented front. This will bring a greater
chance of flash flooding compared to Monday, with a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect. Some severe storms will again be
possible, with a Slight Risk in place for the threat of large hail and
damaging winds.Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue over portions of the
Southwest/Four Corners Region as an influx of tropical moisture brings
Monsoon-like conditions. Some locally intense downpours are possible and
may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. The highest confidence
in storm coverage exists over portions of southeast Arizona where a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. A few more scattered instances of
flash flooding will be possible here, especially for urban areas around
Tuscon. The higher moisture, cloud cover, and storms will keep
temperatures around average, with 80s and 90s in the Four Corners region
and 100s to 110 for the Southwest. Forecast high temperatures are
generally above average by 5-10 degrees elsewhere in the West, with 60s
and 70s along the immediate Pacific Coast, 70s and 80s in the Pacific
Northwest, and low to mid-90s for the Great Basin. Highs in the low to
mid-100s for portions of interior central California and the 110s for the
western Mojave/Sonoran Deserts have prompted heat-related advisories and
warnings.Elsewhere, areas of showers and storms will continue in the vicinity of a
surface low and cold front pushing through Upstate New York and New
England into early Monday afternoon. Storm chances should taper off as the
system clears the coast Monday evening. Further south, additional storms
will be possible ahead of a cold front over portions of the Southeast.
Diurnal sea breeze-related storms are also expected over Florida Monday
and Tuesday. Welcome relief from the heat will come to the Mid-Atlantic,
with highs generally in the 70s and 80s. Temperatures will return closer
to average Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
