This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 23 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 23 2024 – 12Z Tue Jun 25 2024…Heat wave focus shifts from the Mid-Atlantic to portions of the
Southeast/Southern Plains by Monday……Widespread storms will bring the threat of flash flooding, damaging
winds, and tornadoes to New England Sunday……Severe storms for portions of the Upper Midwest on Monday…
…Monsoon-like conditions persist for the Southwest…
Broad long-wave upper-level ridging over the East Coast and western U.S.
Sunday will keep hot Summer temperatures in the forecast for much of the
country. Highs are forecast into the upper-90s from the Mid-Atlantic to
the Southeast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains and west through
the High Plains into the Great Basin and California. Humidity helping to
push heat index values into the low 100s as well as warm low temperatures
generally in the mid-70s, providing little relief from the heat overnight,
will make this heat most dangerous for portions of the Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Plains, with
heat-related advisories and warnings in effect for some areas. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are possible for the Mid-Atlantic. In the
West, heat-related advisories/warnings are also in effect where
temperatures will push past 100 over northern Utah and portions of
central/southern interior California. An approaching upper-level
trough/surface cold front later Sunday will bring temperatures down closer
to average Monday for the Mid-Atlantic, while the Southeast/Lower
Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains continue to simmer. The upper-level
ridge over the West will also begin to move eastward over the central
U.S., bringing highs into the upper 90s and low 100s more broadly over the
Central/Southern Plains.The noted upper-level trough and accompanying surface low pressure/frontal
system pushing eastward will bring storm chances from New England
southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic into the Upper Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys Sunday with moderate to locally heavy rainfall possible. The
greatest chance for some potentially more significant rainfall will fall
ahead of the surface low track over northern New England where anomalously
high moisture values and strong forcing could lead to downpours upwards of
2″/hour. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for
the risk of some scattered instances of flash flooding. In addition,
strengthening upper-level and low-level winds as well as strong
instability given the high moisture and warming temperatures will promote
some more intense thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has added an
Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) over central New England where
these conditions are most favorable for the threat of damaging winds and a
few tornadoes. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) is in place across the
region and southwest through the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Upper Ohio
Valley for a more isolated threat of damaging winds. The system is
expected to reach the coast by Monday morning, bringing drier conditions
into the day Monday, though some storms may linger over northern New
England.To the West, an upper-level shortwave/surface frontal system moving
eastward along the northern tier of the West/southern Canada Sunday will
approach the Upper-Midwest by Monday afternoon. Warm, moist air flowing
northward ahead of the system will help to lead to the chance for some
storms along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front. A Slight Risk of
severe weather remains in place for portions of northern
Minnesota/Wisconsin for the threat of some damaging winds and large hail.
The chance for some more widespread/organized convection and locally heavy
downpours may lead to an isolated instance or two of flash flooding as
well. Monsoon-like conditions will persist over the Southwest through at
least Monday, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Anomalously high
moisture over the region will lead to some locally heavy downpours and an
isolated risk for flash flooding. Daily storm chances will also persist
over Florida and south Texas.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
