This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 20 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 20 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 22 2024…Heavy rain/flooding threats and gusty winds over South Texas gradually
decrease today as Tropical Storm Alberto makes landfall in Mexico and
dissipates……Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns increase across the northern
Plains to the upper Midwest later Thursday into Friday as scattered
thunderstorms could result in localized flooding issues from the southern
High Plains to the Four Corners……A heat wave will persist over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and
portions of the Northeast into the weekend as heat intensifies in the
western U.S….Tropical Storm Alberto centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
begun heading west toward northern Mexico early this morning. Organized
bands of heavy rain extending north from the center have already brought
close to 10 inches of rain locally near the mid-Texas coast. As the heavy
rain bands continue to steadily move west through the Rio Grande Valley
into northern Mexico today, the heavy rain and flooding threats will
gradually decrease across South Texas. Strong and gusty winds will also
gradually weaken with time. Some of the tropical moisture from Alberto
will be drawn northward and energize the scattered showers and
thunderstorms from the southern High Plains to the Four Corners heading
into the weekend. These showers/storms will be more numerous during the
late afternoon to early evening hours in these areas.Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the
potential of tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic as a
tropical wave moves west-northwest in the general direction of
northeastern Florida and Georgia. Some enhanced rainfall with gusty winds
can be expected to reach these areas Thursday night and will likely linger
through much of Friday.Across the northern tier states, relatively less active weather is
expected today as a high pressure system brings cooler and more stable air
from Canada. However, the next piece of energy exiting the central
Rockies will set up the next episode of heavy rain and strong to severe
storms across the northern Plains to the upper Midwest beginning tonight.
A couple rounds of heavy rain focusing just north of a nearly stationary
front across the region will result in slight to moderate risks of
excessive rainfall from eastern South Dakota, across southern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin through Saturday morning. Farther east, scattered
thunderstorms are likely across the Great Lakes region and the Northeast
near and north of the stationary front. Marginal to slight risks of
severe storms are delineated each day from the Storm Prediction Center
(mainly for the threat of severe wind but with some low chances for hail),
and marginal risks of excessive rainfall are in place as well.All these rain and thunderstorm areas are taking place along the periphery
of an upper ridge/heat dome that edges from the Mid-Atlantic into the
Mid-South over the next couple of days and sustains a heat wave across the
Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Afternoon high temperatures and
warm overnight lows will challenge daily records and even some monthly and
all-time records. Heat index readings are expected to peak from 100 to 105
degrees in many locations. Those without access to reliable air
conditioning are urged to find a way to cool down. Record warm overnight
temperatures will prevent natural cooling and allow the heat danger to
build over time indoors without air conditioning. Temperatures may be
lower and less hazardous closer to the coast if/where sea breezes form. By
Friday, conditions should improve over New England as cooler air dips a
bit farther south into the area behind a front, but temperatures well into
the 90s and higher heat indices are forecast to continue across the Ohio
Valley to Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, cooler than average highs are likely
into the southern High Plains with the clouds and rain forecast, but
temperatures over the West will gradually rise above normal Thursday and
Friday. In the western U.S., it appears that the heat will increase by
Saturday as triple-digit high temperatures are forecast for the Central
Valley of California and the Great Basin.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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