This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jun 17 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024 – 12Z Wed Jun 19 2024…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible today across the
north-central Plains, shifting north into the northern Plains and northern
Minnesota late tonight into Tuesday……Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will shift farther south from the
central Plains to the upper Midwest Tuesday night to Wednesday morning……A heat wave will expand from the central Plains across the Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley and the Northeast today and remain across the Northeast
through midweek……Heavy rain threat emerging along the central Gulf Coast today,
following by an increasing heavy rain threat toward the Texas Gulf Coast
later Tuesday and especially Wednesday……Late-season wet snow will persist across the high-elevations of the
northern Rockies for the next couple of days...A very active weather pattern will continue for the next couple of days
with additional cold air intrusion and jet stream energy traversing the
northwestern U.S. The battle zone will continue to be over the
north-central U.S. where a cluster of thunderstorms containing severe
weather and heavy rain is expanding across the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system is forecast to develop over the central
High Plains and intensify as it heads toward and reaches the upper Midwest
by Tuesday morning. The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will lift
farther north into the northern Plains and the upper Midwest on Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, while the low pressure center will rapidly eject into
southern Canada, a sharp front trailing south and southwest from the low
will likely trigger an axis of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms from
the central Plains to the upper Midwest from Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.The cold air intrusion and jet stream energy across the northwestern U.S.
will also bring a round of late-season wet snow across the high-elevations
of the northern Rockies through the next couple of days where Winter Storm
Warning and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. In addition, this
energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind across the Great
Basin and the northern Rockies today, reaching into the central Rockies
and northern Plains by Tuesday morning behind a sharp cold front.In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, rainy and even snowy weather
across the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low
pressure system from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio
Valley. The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high
temperatures well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and
New Hampshire. By Wednesday afternoon, some locations in interior New
England could see temperatures topping the century mark, which will break
daily records at certain locations. Across the Four Corners region,
critical fire danger conditions are anticipated today under persistently
dry conditions fueled by gusty winds with the approach of the sharp front.Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the
western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas
is beginning to head toward the central Gulf Coast region today. Showers
and embedded thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are
expected to bring an increasing threat of heavy rain first along the
central Gulf Coast region during the next couple of days, with a gradual
westward shift in the heavy rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast
later on Tuesday and especially by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the National
Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a tropical cyclone
to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the next few days.
It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen
especially along the Louisiana and Texas Gulf Coasts through the next
couple of days as pressure is forecast to fall gradually in the Gulf of
Mexico.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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