This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 16 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 16 2024 – 12Z Tue Jun 18 2024…Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are expected to
impact locations from the northern Plains to the upper Midwest for the
next couple of days……Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies Monday and
Tuesday……A heat wave will quickly spread from the Plains today, into the Great
Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley on Monday, and into the Northeast on Tuesday……A plume of tropical moisture will bring an increasing threat of heavy
rain and flash flooding to the central Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday,
shifting toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday…As a high pressure system brings fair weather and a fresh dose of cooler
than normal temperatures into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic this weekend,
a heat wave is emerging across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley ahead of a
complex low pressure system developing over the northern Plains. A
thunderstorm complex containing severe weather is in progress early this
morning in association with the intensifying low pressure complex. The
thunderstorms will quickly move northeast into southern Canada today but
additional jet stream energy moving across the northern Rockies will help
develop a new low pressure system over the central Plains later today.
This system will rapidly develop and expand the next round of showers and
thunderstorms across the northern Plains tonight, and heading into the
upper Midwest on Monday. Severe thunderstorms with heavy downpours can be
expected to accompany this round of inclement over the upper Midwest after
the latest round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms in the
same area early this morning diminishes and moves east into the upper
Great Lakes.By Tuesday, yet another upper trough with an energetic jet stream will
move quickly into the Pacific Northwest. This system will usher a dose of
even colder air through the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where
a round of late-season wet snow is expected to persist over the
higher-elevations of the northern Rockies Monday into Tuesday. A Winter
Storm Watch is in effect for these higher-elevations. In addition, Freeze
and Frost Warnings are in effect over portions of the interior Pacific
Northwest. This energetic system will also bring quite a bit of wind
across the Great Basin and the northern Rockies on Monday, reaching into
the central Rockies and northern Plains by Tuesday morning. As the low
pressure center over the central High Plains intensifies and heads
northeast across the northern Plains, a renewed round of heavy rain and
severe thunderstorms will likely develop and impact the same general
region of upper Midwest across north-central Minnesota by Tuesday morning,
where a moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated.In stark contrast to the cool/cold, windy, and even snowy weather across
the Northwest, a heat wave is quickly emerging ahead of the low pressure
complex from the central Plains, upper Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley.
The heat will surge into the Northeast by Tuesday where high temperatures
well up into the 90s are forecast as far north as Vermont and New
Hampshire.Farther south from Central America across southern Florida and through the
western Atlantic, a plume of tropical moisture lurking across these areas
will shift westward into the Gulf of Mexico and begin to head toward the
central Gulf Coast region late Sunday into Monday. Showers and embedded
thunderstorms associated with this moisture plume are expected to bring an
increasing threat of heavy rain first along the central Gulf Coast region
during the next couple of days, with a gradual westward shift in the heavy
rainfall axis toward the western Gulf Coast by Tuesday. Meanwhile, the
National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the potential for a
tropical cyclone to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the
next few days. It appears that east to northeasterly winds will gradually
strengthen especially along the western Gulf Coast region by Tuesday
morning as pressure gradually falls in the Gulf of Mexico.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
