This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 15 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 17 2024…Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain expected
to impact various locations in the northern and central U.S. through the
next couple of days……Late-season wet snow is forecast for the northern Rockies beginning on
Monday……A plume of tropical moisture is forecast to reach the central Gulf
Coast on Monday……A heat wave will quickly spread from the northern Plains this weekend
into the Great Lakes on Monday…As a series of fronts pushes the showers and storms off the East Coast
early this morning, an active and changeable weather pattern will
establish across the Pacific Northwest. The unseasonably cold and
blustery conditions across this region will be in stark contrast with the
heat that is forecast to quickly spread from the northern Plains this
weekend, reaching into the Great Lakes on Monday. Areas in between these
temperature extremes will be under an active storm track where low
pressure systems will develop and move through in quick succession. The
first round of showers and storms associated with a leading system is
forecast to spark thunderstorm activity from the central Plains early this
morning to the upper Midwest by tonight. Multiple rounds of heavy rain
associated with these storms could lead to areas of flash flooding between
eastern Nebraska and northern Wisconsin. Additionally, a trailing and
stronger low pressure system is forecast to intensify and move quickly
across the northern Plains tonight. This system will help produce strong
to severe thunderstorms across parts of eastern Montana into North and
South Dakota. Unseasonably cold and windy weather will continue into
Sunday and Monday across the Northwest as yet another cold upper trough
reaches the Pacific Northwest. This system will reinforce the
unseasonably cold and windy conditions across the region on Monday along
with wet snow moving into the northern Rockies, therefore prompting the
issuance of Winter Storm Watches. Meanwhile, an area of rain and
thunderstorms is expected to develop and expand across the northern Plains
toward the upper Midwest where a stationary front strengthens ahead of a
developing low pressure system over the central High Plains.Across the Florida Peninsula, the threat of heavy rain continues to
diminish as the main tropical moisture plume is forecast to swing farther
west and head toward the central Gulf Coast during the next couple of
days. Nevertheless, some thunderstorms that manage to develop over
southern Florida could result in local flooding issues given the already
saturated soil. By Monday morning, heavy rain associated with the
tropical moisture plume could begin impacting the central Gulf Coast
region. In contrast, a refreshingly dry airmass behind a cold front
should lead to beautiful weather this Father’s Day weekend throughout the
Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley.The other main weather story this weekend will be the simmering heat
impacting areas from the Southwest to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Highs
are forecast to reach the triple digits throughout much of the Desert
Southwest, with upper 90s stretching from the Southeast to parts of the
Southern Plains. Above average temperatures are also forecast across the
central Great Basin and northern Plains ahead of a cold front, with well
below average temperatures encompassing the Pacific Northwest. By Sunday,
an upper level ridge is anticipated to begin building across the Eastern
U.S., with anomalous heat starting in much of the Midwest, Central Plains,
and Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s, with
maximum heat indices near 105 degrees. When combined with warm overnight
lows, major heat risk could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration. Be sure to remain weather aware and follow proper heat
safety!
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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