This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 13 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024…There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley on Thursday and a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England plus the Central/Southern High Plains on Friday……There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
southern tip of Florida on Thursday and a slight Risk over the southern
tip of Florida on Friday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Advisories over Southern
California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains on
Thursday…A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley, and then westward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to the
Northeast Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and westward to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains by Saturday. The boundary will trigger showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added
threat of severe thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the
Central Plains to Western Ohio Valley. Further, there will be an added
threat of large hail, two inches or greater, from the Central Plains to
the Western Ohio Valley.On Friday, the boundary moves eastward to the Northeast, producing showers
and severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New
England. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England from
Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and
a minimal threat of tornadoes/ hail.In addition, along the western end of the front, showers and severe
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central High Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains from Friday through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Furthermore, there will be an added threat of severe
thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the Central High
Plains. On Friday, there will also be showers and thunderstorms from parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern Appalachians.Meanwhile, on Thursday, a stationary front with waves will extend across
northern Florida and parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and the combination of
tropical moisture over southern Florida will produce showers and
thunderstorms with very heavy rain over parts of southern Florida.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over
the southern tip of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over southern Florida from Friday into
Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Elsewhere, on Friday, a front will develop over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and move inland to the Northern Plains, the Great Basin, and
Southern California. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains on Friday
evening into Saturday. Moreover, onshore flow behind the front will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday to Saturday.Moreover, upper-level ridging will develop over parts of the Southwest
eastward to the Southern, leading to Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and
Heat Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and
Southern High Plains. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor
activities must stay informed and take immediate and necessary precautions.To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article.
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
