This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Fri Jun 07 2024
Valid 00Z Sat Jun 08 2024 – 00Z Mon Jun 10 2024…Threats for severe weather and flash flooding for portions of the
Central Plains into the middle/lower Missouri River Valley through
Saturday……Excessive heat over the West and Southwest through Saturday but some
relief coming on Sunday…Most of the active weather across the lower 48 will focus across the
central portion of the nation through the weekend in the form of severe
thunderstorms and potential for flash flooding. Anomalous moisture will
pool in the vicinity of a pair of frontal boundaries located over the
Central Plains this evening. Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage through this evening near a stationary front currently in
place across Nebraska, with threats for large hail and damaging straight
line winds in addition to tornadoes. An organized thunderstorm complex is
likely to form tonight and translate toward the southeast toward the lower
Missouri Valley, carrying a risk for flash flooding with high rainfall
rates and possibly 4-5 inches of rain by Saturday morning.Severe weather (mainly hail and wind) and flash flood potential will focus
a little farther south on Saturday as a cold front moves through the
central Plains. The threat region will extend from the central High
Plains, through southern KS into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. Spotty rainfall totals in excess of 3 inches will be possible in
addition to the severe thunderstorms.Out West, an upper level ridge in place over the western U.S. will
maintain the hot weather on Saturday that has been impacting the region
over the past couple of days. However, the upper level ridge will be
displaced and weakened with the approach of an upstream trough axis and
associated surface cold front. The cold front is forecast to arrive early
on Sunday and advance south and east during the day which will lower the
magnitude of hot weather. Temperatures however, are still likely to remain
up to roughly 10 degrees above average on Sunday.Across the Great Lakes region into the Northeast, temperatures will run 5
to 15 degrees below average beneath the influence of upper level troughing
this weekend. The region will remain unsettled however, with multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms beneath the upper trough and with a
surface low/cold front tracking eastward through Sunday. East of the
Appalachians, from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast, high pressure will keep
temperatures near to slightly above average for the weekend but with
little to no chances for precipitation. The one exception will be across
the Florida Peninsula where high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s
may challenge a few daily maximum temperature records on Saturday and
Sunday. In addition, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected each day
but with a focus across southern Florida where access to better moisture
will reside.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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