This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 30 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 30 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 01 2024…More active weather across the mid sections of the nation, with
additional rounds of thunderstorms, heavy rains, flash flooding and severe
weather……Heat to continue across the Southwest to South Texas and much of
Florida, while building across the inland valleys of California……Cooler than average temperatures for the Plains and large portions of
the eastern U.S. through early this weekend…A tumultuous weather pattern sparking several rounds of robust
thunderstorms is set to continue throughout much of the central and
south-central United States. The atmospheric ingredients in play for the
next serving of severe weather include an upper trough with embedded
shortwaves crossing the Rockies today, multiple frontal boundaries draped
across the Great Plains, and ample atmospheric moisture content lifting
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a reemerging
dryline over the southern High Plains will help spark strong storms this
afternoon that are forecast to progress eastward tonight over the southern
Plains. These thunderstorms may contain large hail and damaging wind
gusts, with the locations most likely impacted including the Texas
Panhandle and parts of west Texas. A broader threat for isolated severe
weather stretches throughout a majority of the central and southern
Plains. Intense rainfall rates are also possible and can lead to flash
flooding where storm motions are slow. Currently, the scattered flash
flood threat includes much of the central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex
region. The active weather and clusters of redeveloping thunderstorms are
then forecast to gradually slide eastward on Friday as an area of low
pressure pushes across the Red River Valley of the South. Additional
chances for damaging wind gusts and large hail exists across central and
eastern Texas, as well as into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash
flooding also remains a concern for the last day of May across the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Wet weather is anticipated
to expand to start the weekend, but with less focus for severe weather as
thunderstorm chances stretch from the Ohio/Tennessee valleys to the Great
Plains.Storminess over the central U.S. will keep high temperatures below average
to end the week, while a potent high pressure system over the Lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley also offers refreshing afternoon temperatures in the
70s for large sections of the Eastern United States. Summer heat will be
continue to be found across the Southwest and Southern Tier. Muggy highs
into the mid-90s are forecast across the central/southern Florida
Peninsula until a cold front enters on Saturday and offers some much
needed relief in the form of persistent northeasterly flow. Upper 90s and
low 100s are anticipated to stretch from the Southwest to far western and
southern Texas through the weekend. Heat will actually build further north
into the Great Basin and interior California valleys as well, but not
quite warm enough to approach daily records. If spending time outdoors in
these regions, be sure to follow proper heat safety.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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