This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat May 25 2024
Valid 12Z Sat May 25 2024 – 12Z Mon May 27 2024…Dangerous severe weather threat forecast across parts of the
central/southern Plains through tonight before the potential for strong
storms shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys on Sunday……Extreme fire weather expected for south-central New Mexico with
critical fire weather throughout much of the southern Rockies/High Plains
today……Simmering heat continues across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and
southern Florida through Memorial Day…The start of this Memorial Day weekend will feature yet another round of
severe weather impacting the central United States as the next storm
system strengthens across the central Plains. A textbook Great Plains
severe weather setup is expected as a warm front lifts to the central
Plains and middle Mississippi Valley while a sharp dryline extends south
of the low into the southern Plains. Discrete supercells are anticipated
to develop this evening in response to an ejecting shortwave out of the
Rockies as aforementioned surface boundaries provide a focus for
developing thunderstorms. A few supercells may be capable of intense
tornadoes, with giant hail and destructive winds also expected. By
tonight, thunderstorms are expected to merge into clusters and potentially
bow echos as they push eastward towards the Ozarks. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for severe thunderstorms in
parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and far southwest Missouri. Additionally,
storms are expected to contain intense rainfall rates that could lead to
scattered instances of flash flooding from the central/southern Plains to
the mid-Mississippi Valley into tonight. The low pressure system and
associated storminess are expected to shift eastward on Sunday into
portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts are the most
likely hazards as a complex of thunderstorms progress from Missouri to
Kentucky, as well as the possibility of flash flooding, hail, and a few
tornadoes. The Memorial Day finale for this spring storm system will
impact the eastern U.S. on Monday as low pressure swings into the Great
Lakes and a strong cold front extends along the Appalachians. Showers and
storms may dampen outdoor barbecues, while also containing frequent
lighting, have rain, and gusty winds. Residents and visitors should remain
weather aware this holiday weekend and have multiple ways of receiving
warnings.West of the dryline today throughout the southern High Plains and southern
Rockies will exist extremely critical fire weather conditions. Low
relative humidity, gusty winds, and dry vegetation could lead to any newly
formed fires to spread rapidly. Red Flag Warnings span throughout all of
New Mexico, southeast Arizona, western Texas, and the western Oklahoma
Panhandle.The temperature outlook for this weekend includes above average
temperatures leading to a summer-like feel for much of the eastern U.S.,
Mid-South, and central/southern Plains as heat also begins to build back
into the West by Memorial Day. Cooler temperatures are forecast to remain
over the Rockies, Northwest, and north-central United States. Heat will
reach oppressive levels across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern
Florida, with heat indices into the triple digits and the potential for
daily record highs. Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect across South
Texas due to heat indices rising to around 115 degrees, which could be
dangerous for those spending extended amounts of time outdoors.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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