This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 24 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 24 2024 – 12Z Sun May 26 2024…Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the Midwest to
the southern Plains today……Next round of severe weather to develop across the central/southern
Plains Saturday evening before shifting into parts of the mid-Mississippi
and Ohio valleys on Sunday……Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across South
Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida through Memorial Day weekend…The relentlessly active spring weather pattern is set to continue through
the holiday weekend as two separate systems are anticipated to be
responsible for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the middle of
the Nation. An initial low pressure system deepening over the northern
Plains today, while an attached cold front extends from the Upper Midwest
to the Southern Plains, should maintain a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, cold air aloft on the backside of
the strong system could allow for snow to mix with rain across parts of
North Dakota. Along the cold front as it extends southward, storms could
turn severe from the Midwest to the southern Plains, with the greatest
potential for tornadoes across central to northern Illinois, far eastern
Iowa, and southern Wisconsin. This same cold front could slow it’s forward
progress and allow for thunderstorms to potentially train across parts of
southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northeast Texas, leading to the
threat of scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms may
dampen outdoors plans throughout the Southeast and Tennessee Valley.The next shortwave to eject out of the western U.S. and into the Great
Plains is expected to spark the next round of severe weather late on
Saturday in the central/southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure
forming in the lee of the central Rockies is forecast to lift a warm front
northward to the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, while a sharp
dryline extends southward into the southern Plains. These features
combined with a strengthening low-level jet will allow for storms to turn
severe, containing a risk for large hail, intense rainfall rates, a few
tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has issued
an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms across parts of
Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Missouri in order to highlight the threat.
As clusters of storms move eastward with the system on Sunday, the flash
flooding and severe weather will shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio
valleys. Tornadoes, hail, strong winds, and flash flooding will be
possible. Residents and visitors located within the threat for severe
weather this weekend are urged to have multiple ways of receiving warnings
and to continue to check for the latest forecast.Elsewhere, heat remains the main weather story along the Gulf Coast, South
Texas, and southern Florida. The hottest locations are forecast throughout
South Texas into late this weekend as highs soar above the century mark,
with heat indices up to 120 degrees possible. Temperatures into the upper
90s are anticipated to spread into much of Texas on Saturday and Sunday as
well. High heat indices will also impact the immediate Gulf Coast region
and South Florida, while also potentially breaking a few record high
temperatures. Warm overnight conditions will also provide little to no
relief for those without adequate or reliable cooling.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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