This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 23 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 23 2024 – 12Z Sat May 25 2024…Heavy rain and severe weather threats across the Arklatex region today
will expand northward across the northern and central Plains tonight……Heavy rain and severe weather threats will shift east into the Midwest
and remain across the Arklatex region on Friday……Heavy snow expected today across the higher elevations of the northern
Rockies…As a low pressure system continues to move further away from the Great
Lakes into southeastern Canada, showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
associated cold front will push farther eastward across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states today. Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the
front will become nearly stationary across the Mid-South where the focus
of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will be the greatest today. These
thunderstorms may reform across the Arklatex region as the frontal
boundary meanders in the vicinity, along with the arrival of some
additional lifting mechanisms from an upper-level jet stream from the
west-southwest. The jet stream winds will tend to carry the showers and
storms downstream across the Mid-South toward the Appalachians and the
Mid-Atlantic states, keeping the weather unsettled for these areas through
the next couple of days with modest rainfall amounts although locally
heavy rain can be expected in some of the embedded thunderstorms.Meanwhile, a rather deep and compact upper-level low from Alaska a couple
of days ago is now sweeping across the northwestern U.S. This system will
continue to usher a cold air mass through the western U.S. with a round of
heavy wet snow across the higher-elevations of Idaho, western Montana, and
into northwestern/northern Wyoming today. The energy from this system
will help develop another low pressure system across the northern and
central High Plains today. The low pressure system is forecast to further
intensify on Friday as the upper low exits into northern Plains and begins
to lift toward the northeast. Another round of showers and possibly
severe thunderstorms will develop and expand across many locations up and
down the Great Plains later today, and will begin to lift east and
northeastward into the Midwest, and along the Mississippi Valley on
Friday. A swath of cold rain is forecast across North Dakota,
southeastern Montana, and into northwestern Minnesota as the low pressure
center tracks just to the south. Temperatures could be cold enough for
some wet snow to mix in with the rain later tonight near the Canadian
border. Increasingly strong and gusty winds will also add to the chill as
the low pressure system intensifies and wraps the precipitation around the
center of circulation. By Saturday morning, the showers and storms should
progress into the Great Lakes and down across the Midwest ahead of and
near the cold/occluded fronts. Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms
will linger across the Mid-South into the Southeast where the old front
lingers.Across southern Texas an early-season heat wave is forecast to gradually
intensify through the next few days into the Memorial Day weekend. Record
or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no
relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. By this weekend,
record daily high temperatures and heat index readings over 115 degrees in
South Texas will also be possible. Check local media and government
websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you
encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. If you use a portable
generator, do so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a
generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed space! Finally, a
critical fire danger is forecast for the southern Rockies into the
southern High Plains per the Storm Prediction Center.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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