This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 22 2024
Valid 12Z Wed May 22 2024 – 12Z Fri May 24 2024…Deep storm begins to move away from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes today
as the next heavy rain and severe weather threats emerge across the
southern Plains toward the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley tonight……Heavy wet snow expected to overspread the higher elevations of the
northern Rockies tonight into Thursday...…Another rapidly developing low pressure system will bring severe
weather and heavy rain threats into the Thursday night into Friday
morning…An active weather pattern continues from the western U.S. to the Great
Plains where unsettled and changeable weather can be expected for at least
the next couple of days. Residents across the upper Midwest into the
upper Great Lakes will wake up this morning with a rapidly intensifying
low-pressure system passing through. Much of the heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms associated with the system are already moving into southern
Canada as the storm center continues to take a north-northeasterly track
across the western end of Lake Superior and heading quickly toward
southern Canada. Blustery winds behind the departing storm will take
extra time to subside today across the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes.
As the heavy rain and thunderstorms associated with the deep storm exit
the upper Midwest, the southern Plains will need to watch for an emerging
threat of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms where the trailing front
from the deep storm becomes nearly stationary. The most active weather
can be expected tonight as well as Thursday night from the southern Plains
toward the lower Mississippi Valley, with a lull in the activities
Thursday morning.Meanwhile, the next energetic upper low, which had a history of diving
southeast from Alaska, is getting ready to reach the Pacific Northwest.
The system will bring a round of widespread precipitation through the
Northwest, with heavy wet snow falling across the higher elevations of
Idaho, western Montana, and into Wyoming for tonight and into Thursday.
The system will also usher a cold air mass through the Northwest by
Thursday, reaching into the northern Plains by Friday morning. Windy
conditions are also expected to overspread the entire area, especially
immediately behind a sharp cold front.Elsewhere, relatively quiet weather is expected across the Southwest.
Meanwhile, very warm to hot weather is expected across much of the eastern
U.S. today before showers and thunderstorms quickly move into the interior
sections later today. The Mid-Atlantic states will see these showers and
embedded thunderstorms move in tonight and linger into Thursday as the
front becomes nearly stationary across the region. Additional moisture
from the South is forecast to ride along the front, bringing rounds of
showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic into
Friday morning.Across southern Texas, the heat is forecast to gradually intensify through
the next few days, with heat indices possibly topping 110 degrees by
Thursday afternoon. Residents across southern Florida will also feel the
heat getting more oppressive as the week progresses due to gradually
increasing humidity under the influence of a high pressure ridge with fair
weather conditions.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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