This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 17 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 17 2024 – 12Z Sun May 19 2024…Potentially significant heavy rainfall threat spreads into portions of
southern Mississippi and western Alabama Friday……Wet start to the weekend for much of the eastern U.S. as well as the
Northern Rockies/Plains……Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas into
this weekend…A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected Friday across much
of the eastern U.S., with the chance for moderate to heavy rainfall likely
to focus from the Lower Great Lakes south through the Appalachians into
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and to the Gulf Coast. Starting along the Gulf
Coast, another day of potentially significant flash flooding is forecast
along and to the south of a warm front lifting slowly northward across the
region. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) has been issued
for portions of southern Mississippi and Alabama where a complex of
organized, heavy downpour-producing storms is forecast over already
saturated soils from storms Thursday night. The location of these
additional storms will likely be influenced by the storms ongoing
overnight, bringing higher uncertainty and highlighting the importance of
remaining aware of the most current forecast. To the north, an active
series of shortwaves will help encourage a couple additional areas of
locally heavier rainfall focused over portions of the central Appalachians
as well as the Lower Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valley. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in place for both locations for the
threat of some scattered instances of flash flooding. Storm chances will
shift southeastward on Saturday, bringing the focus for moderate to heavy
rainfall to the southern Mid-Atlantic south along the coastal Carolinas
into Georgia and lingering along the central Gulf Coast. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall has been included here for portions of the central Gulf
Coast where higher available moisture is most likely to lead to locally
heavier downpours on top of already saturated conditions from the previous
days’ rainfall. Additional scattered instances of flash flooding remain
possible.Another frontal system will bring shower and storm chances to the Northern
Rockies/High Plains early Friday and the Northern Plains/Upper-Midwest by
Friday evening. Generally light to moderate rainfall is expected, with the
more moderate rain most likely near the Red River Valley. Cooler
conditions may lead to some snow mixing in through the Northern Rockies,
though no accumulations are expected. Precipitation chances will taper off
into Saturday as the bulk of the system lifts northeastward into Canada.
However, to the southwest, some showers and storms will be possible late
Saturday into early Sunday along a trailing frontal boundary stretching
into the Central Plains.Conditions will continue to remain unseasonably hot and very much
Summer-like for portions of South Florida and southern Texas into the
weekend. Forecast highs Friday and Saturday range from the low to mid-90s
in South Florida and the mid 90s to mid-100s in southern Texas,
potentially record-tying/breaking temperatures. High humidity will bring
heat indices into the mid- to upper-100s for many locations.
Unfortunately, this pattern looks to continue not only into next week but
into the following week as well. While not quite as hot, temperatures will
also be well-above average and Summer-like across portions of the Northern
and Central Plains Friday, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s forecast.
These temperatures will shift eastward into the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. Variable highs are expected for the rest of the central/eastern
U.S., with above average conditions into the 70s for most of the Northeast
Friday and Saturday, though portions of the Mid-Atlantic will see a cool
down into the 60s Saturday. Slightly below average conditions following a
frontal passage over the Southern Plains and Southeast will continue
Friday with highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s, though a quick warm-up
into the mid-80s to 90s will come Saturday for the Southern Plains. In the
West, conditions will be below average in the Pacific Northwest and along
coastal California, with highs mainly in the 60s. However, above average
conditions are expected into the interior, with highs in the 70s to low
80s in the Great Basin, 80s for the central California valleys, and 90s to
low 100s for the Desert Southwest.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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