It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 25 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 27 2024…Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances will continue to
expand across much of the central United States over the next several
days……Increasing risk of flash flooding across parts of central and eastern
Oklahoma Saturday night……Active fire weather pattern to emerge over the southern High Plains
today…An increasingly active weather pattern is beginning to unfold across the
mid-section of the Nation as an upper-level trough from the subtropical
eastern Pacific nears Baja California and the Southwest. This trough is
expected to interact with warm and moist air returning from the Gulf of
Mexico and produce an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms
gradually lifting north of a warm front. The initial stages of
rain/thunderstorm formation are setting up across the central Plains early
this morning. A greater severe weather threat is expected to expand across
the central Plains this afternoon as a surface cyclone rapidly deepens in
eastern Colorado in response to the approaching upper level trough. The
aforementioned warm front is expected to continue lifting northward while
a High Plains dryline pushes east. This environment is anticipated to
produce numerous thunderstorms across the central and southern Plains,
with scattered storms turning severe. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather across parts of
western Kansas and Oklahoma into the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest
Texas. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes
will all be possible. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could also lead to
scattered flash flooding, which has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall across parts of northeast Oklahoma, eastern Kansas,
southwest Missouri, and northwest Arkansas. By Friday, the low pressure
system is forecast to deepen and slide northeast across the central Plains
before eventually reaching the upper Midwest on Saturday morning. This
will spread shower and thunderstorm chances eastward into the upper
Midwest, mid- and lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the southern
Plains. The greatest severe weather threat to end the week is forecast
across parts of the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, where an
Enhanced Risk of severe weather includes parts of southwest Iowa,
southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and northwest Missouri. This severe
weather threat includes the possibility of a few tornadoes, large to very
large hail, and damaging winds. Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are also possible across much of the Mississippi Valley into the
southern Plains on Friday.No breaks from Mother Nature to start the weekend as another round of
severe weather and possibly a dangerous flash flood threat impacts parts
of the central/southern Plains. After the initial system progresses into
the Upper Great Lakes, a lingering frontal boundary is expected to stretch
into the central Plains on Saturday, along with a southern High Plains
dryline. Meanwhile, the western U.S. trough is anticipated to reload due
to an approaching shortwave from the northeast Pacific. This setup is
forecast to produce another round of strong to severe storms Saturday
evening, with several thunderstorms expected to move slowly over parts of
central and eastern Oklahoma. This creates a situation likely to lead to
numerous instances of flash flooding and is highlighted by a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) for Excessive Rainfall, with a Slight Risk spanning from
north-central Texas to southern Iowa. Residents and visitors across the
central U.S. over the next several days are urged to remain weather aware,
have multiple ways to receive warnings, and never drive across flooded
roads.Behind the dryline across the southern High Plains, the combination of
very low relative humidity and gusty winds are expected to raise fire
danger to critical level through this weekend. Any fires that develop will
likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. Additionally,
gusty winds up to 60 mph could lead to areas of blowing dust.Elsewhere, unsettled weather is expected to persist over the West, Great
Basin, and Rockies over the next few days with the passage of the upper
trough. Precipiation is expected to remain mostly light, with embedded
downpours and high-elevation heavy snow by Friday across the Rockies. The
Northwest should be the wettest region across the West as a Pacific low
pressure system moves onshore. The Coastal Ranges as well as the Cascades
could receive a couple of inches of rainfall with heavy wet snow possible
across the higher elevations. This active weather will also accompany a
cooling trend throughout the West in contrast to the recent spring warmth
across the region. Chilly weather is also forecast across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic through the end of the week as high pressure builds
southward from Canada. Low temperatures could dip below freezing on this
morning and have prompted Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories to be
issued from the Midwest to southern New England. Most of the above average
warmth will be found throughout the Plains outside of areas experiencing
prolonged periods of rainfall, with highs into the 80s remaining across
the Southern Tier States into Friday. Above average warmth will also begin
to spread eastward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley by
Saturday with highs into the upper 70s and low 80s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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