It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 18 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 18 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 20 2024…Severe weather and isolated flash flooding for the Middle
Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys and Southern Plains Thursday……Showers, thunderstorms, and cooler weather for much of the Southern
Plains Friday; wintry mix into the central High Plains……Unseasonably warm conditions for much of the southern U.S.; chillier
weather expands across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest…A weakening system over the Northeast will bring some shower chances to
the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday. To the west, a much
broader area of showers and thunderstorms is expected ahead of a cold
front from the Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys southwestward through
the Southern Plains. Sufficient shear and instability will be in place in
the Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys for some organized
thunderstorms/line segments, with the Storm Prediction Center noting an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather. Very large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes will all be possible. A Slight Risk (level 2/5)
extends southwestward along the front into Texas, with a more isolated
threat for some large hail and damaging winds. The prospect of widespread
storm coverage, especially for areas further north through the Middle
Mississippi Valley, and the potential for heavy downpours may lead to some
isolated flash flooding as well.Shower and thunderstorm chances will progress eastward with the advancing
cold front into the Appalachians by Friday morning and eventually the East
Coast by Friday evening, though coverage and intensity looks to trend
downward during the day as the front approaches the coast. A few isolated
severe thunderstorms may occur over the Southeast. Areas of moderate to
rainfall will linger over portions of the Southern Plains along and north
of the cold front over Texas as it begins to slow and stall over the
region. Some isolated flooding will be possible. Post-frontal upslope flow
will also bring precipiation chances to the central High Plains and Front
Range of the Rockies, with a mix of rain and snow showers for lower
elevations and snow into the mountains. Any accumulations at the lower
elevations should remain minimal.Forecast high temperatures remain rather warm to even hot across southern
portions of the country Thursday, with highs in the mid-80s to near 90
from Texas eastward through the Southeast, and even as far north as
portions of the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. Areas of west
Texas and along the Rio Grande Valley will see mid- to upper 90s.
Conditions will be similarly hot in the Desert Southwest. The southerly
progression of the cold front will bring much cooler temperatures Friday
across northern Texas and into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley as highs
drop into the 60s and 70s. Conditions will remain hot south of the frontal
boundary. Further north, highs will range in the 50s and 60s across the
central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes region, with 60s and 70s
from the Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. The northern
Mid-Atlantic into New England will be a bit chilly Thursday with highs in
the 40s and 50s, with temperatures expected to recover a bit Friday. Cold
temperatures will also expand in coverage across the northern
Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest as high pressure settles in over the
region, with highs in the 30s and 40s. In the West, highs will range from
the 60s and 70s from the Pacific Northwest southward through coastal
California and inland across the Great Basin, with 80s for the central
California valleys.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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