It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Mar 05 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 05 2024 – 12Z Thu Mar 07 2024…A wet weather pattern for large areas to the east of the Mississippi
River……Heavy higher elevation snows continue for northern portions of the West
Tuesday with improving conditions by Wednesday……Much above average temperatures expected for much of the lower 48 to
the east of the Rockies over the next few days…Widespread showers and thunderstorms bringing areas of moderate rainfall
continue this morning along a slow-moving cold front stretching from the
Great Lakes into the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley. Storm chances
will shift into the Lower Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys through the day Tuesday as the front makes some eastward
progress. To the south, another frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast will
lift northward, bringing with it additional Gulf moisture and storm
chances into the Southeast. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop
along the boundary overnight Tuesday as the system shifts northeastward
into the Carolinas. More widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
expected through the region with an isolated threat of flash flooding.
Meanwhile, a coastal low in the Mid-Atlantic will continue northward
bringing light to moderate showers from the Mid-Atlantic into New England
Tuesday. By Wednesday, the low pressure system over the Southeast will
begin to better organize and shift northeastward along the coast towards
the Mid-Atlantic/New England. The frontal system over the Great Lakes will
move eastward into the Northeast as well, helping to focus a renewed round
of heavier showers along a northeastward axis from the coastal
Mid-Atlantic through New England. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/5) is in place for portions of southern New England where the
heaviest rainfall will overlap wet antecedent conditions and areas with
higher stream flows, which may result in some scattered instances of flash
flooding. Some wintry precipitation may mix in north of the cold front
over northern New England overnight Wednesday.One more day of heavy higher elevation/mountain snows continues in the
West as an energetic jet stream sits over a quasi-stationary boundary and
an influx of Pacific moisture focused through northern California and the
southern Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin and Rockies.
Several more inches of snow are forecast in the regional mountain ranges
from the southern Cascades and northern Sierra east to the Tetons in
Wyoming. Colder air settling in with the front has brought snow levels
lower, bringing snow to interior lower elevation valley locations as well
from southern Oregon into western Idaho. Another Pacific storm system
dropping southward along the California Coast will help to shift the
influx of Pacific moisture southward by Wednesday, finally bringing
improving conditions as snowfall tapers off. Along the coast, some
locally heavy rainfall is expected Tuesday for northern California,
shifting southward with the system into southern California Wednesday.
Here, more sensitive conditions due to recent high profile rainfall events
may lead to an isolated but nonzero threat of flash flooding.Elsewhere, an upper-level shortwave will help to deepen/better organize a
low pressure/frontal system lingering over the Northern Plains Wednesday,
leading to increasing precipitation chances. Some accumulating snowfall
looks possible along the Canadian border from northern North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by early Thursday. Further south, another organizing
frontal system will also bring increasing precipitation chances to the
Central and Southern Plains, with some showers and thunderstorms forecast
overnight Wednesday into early Thursday.High temperatures will remain well above average by 10-20 degrees for the
lower 48 east of the Rockies through midweek. Some even greater anomalies
will be found in the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes Tuesday as
temperatures once again reach into the 70s, 25-35 degrees above average.
The cold front passing through by Wednesday will make temperatures
relatively cooler, but still above average, with highs in the upper 40s to
low 60s. The warmest temperatures will be found along the western Gulf
Coast into southern Texas with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. A few
daily record-tying/breaking highs may be reached in both locations.
Otherwise, along the East Coast, forecast highs range between the 40s and
50s in New England, 50s and 60s in the Mid-Atlantic, 60s and 70s for the
Southeast, and 70s and 80s into Florida. For central portions of the
country, highs will be in the 40s and 50s for the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest, 50s and 60s from the Central Plains through the Middle
Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Ohio Valley, and the 60s and 70s for
the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. In the West, highs will
remain near or below average as mean troughing remains in place, with
temperatures ranging from the 20s and 30s for the Northern
Rockies/adjacent High Plains, 30s and 40s for the Great Basin and Pacific
Northwest, 50s and 60s for California, and 60s and 70s in the Southwest.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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