It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 04 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 04 2024 – 12Z Tue Feb 06 2024…Life threatening flooding likely across central/southern California
Sunday and Monday……Heavy Snow will cause extreme impacts over much of the Sierra Nevada on
Sunday and Monday……Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the Southeast and
Florida Sunday, with the chance for some severe weather in South Florida……Anomalous warmth continues across the Northern/Central Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley…
Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
| Notices: The article on the Seasonal Outlook can be accessed HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A strong Pacific storm system/Atmospheric River event will bring impactful
and dangerous flooding rains, heavy snow, strong winds, coastal flooding,
and high surf to California over the next couple of days. The combination
of anomalously warm, moist air streaming in from the Pacific, favorable
strong onshore/upslope flow, and cool enough air aloft for some
instability will lead to widespread, heavy rain producing showers and
thunderstorms with rain rates upwards of 1″/hour. There is now a High Risk
of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4) for the Transverse Ranges of Southern
California both Sunday and Monday as the Pacific system is expected to
slow and allow for a longer duration event with near continuous rainfall
over the next 48 hours. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) encompasses the High
Risk along the central Coastal Ranges southward through the LA Basin
Sunday, and from the LA Basin southward along the Peninsular Ranges
Monday. Expected rainfall totals over the next couple of days range
between 3-6″ from the central Coastal Ranges southward through the LA
Basin and along the Peninsular Ranges in the Moderate Risk area, and 6-12″
into the foothills and Tranverse Ranges in the High Risk area. This heavy
rainfall will bring the threat for life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding as well as debris flows and mudslides. Heavy rainfall
totals with the potential for some scattered flash flooding are also
expected further inland for northern portions of the San Joaquin into the
Sacramento Valley and along upslope portions of the Sierra Sunday, and
portions of the Mojave Desert Monday, with Slight Risks (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall in effect.Heavy snow will be the headline of the event for higher elevations of the
mountain ranges of Northern California and the Sierra Nevada, generally
above 5000-6000 feet. Snow totals of several feet are forecast for the
Sierra through Tuesday morning. Heavy snow rates of 2-3″/hour along with
strong winds will lead to whiteout conditions and dangerous, near
impossible travel conditions. Higher elevations of the Southern California
ranges will also see heavy snow above 7000 feet. In addition to both the
flooding rains and heavy snow, very strong, gusty winds upwards of 60-70
mph are expected and may lead to downed trees and power outages.
Dangerous, potentially damaging high surf and coastal flooding are also
likely along the coast.Moisture associated with the system will spread further northward and
inland bringing moderate to heavy snow for the regional mountain ranges of
the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Northern Rockies over the next
couple of days. Some of the higher elevations could see over a foot of
snow, particularly for the Central Great Basin in Nevada northeastward
into the Northern Rockies in Idaho/Wyoming. Lower elevations will see a
mix of rain and snow, with little to no accumulations expected.To the east, a deep upper-level low and accompanying surface low
pressure/frontal system over the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico will continue to
draw moist, Gulf air northward leading organized shower and thunderstorms
for portions of the Southeast and Florida Sunday. Some locally heavy
downpours will be possible with the chance for an isolated instance or two
of flash flooding. Locally higher low-level shear from South Florida into
the Florida keys may lead to some more organized, supercell storms. The
Storm Prediction Center has added a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
weather for the threat of some damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado
or two. Elsewhere, some light to moderate showers will linger early Sunday
through portions of the Central and Southern Plains, with some light to
moderate snow along portions of the Northern High Plains. Precipitation
chances should come down through Sunday evening, with mostly tranquil
conditions expected Monday. The Northeast will remain dry with near
average temperatures. Anomalously warm temperatures will continue for
portions of the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley. Highs in the 40s and even some low 50s are upwards of 20-30
degrees over early February averages.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittant so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
