NOAA Updates its February 2024 Weather Outlook – Substantially Different from the Mid-Month Outlook – February 1, 2024

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is February of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for February and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for February  for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for February. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (FMA) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the February Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the amount of water in the snowpack waiting to be released in the Spring. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting CLIMAS Podcast.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for February is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

Here is the updated Outlook for February 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for February.

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2024

The updated February 2024 monthly temperature and precipitation outlooks are based on the latest dynamical model guidance, including the CFSv2 and GEFSv12 forecasts for the month of February, as well as the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) temperature and precipitation forecasts for the first week of the month, the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and the latest CPC week 3-4 outlook (valid February 10-23). Although the ongoing El Niño is predicted to weaken over the next few months, it remains a major climate driver impacting the mid-latitude circulation and February temperature and precipitation. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently active with enhanced convection over the Western Pacific. However, dynamical models , including the ECMWF and GEFS, indicate large uncertainties in the MJO forecast and somewhat stationary convection, as the subseasonal variability interacts with the El Niño circulation pattern. The MJO was only considered in the monthly outlook to the extent that impacts may be associated with variability in the dynamical model forecasts for the first two weeks of February.

A low pressure system is expected to impact the west coast of the contiguous US (CONUS) during the first week of the month. Dynamical model forecasts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble prediction systems predict the mid-level trough near the Pacific coast at the start of February to move eastward into the southwestern CONUS and weaken during the second week of the month. The most recent available ECMWF and GEFS ensemble forecasts predict a positive 500-hPa height anomaly extending from Mainland Alaska southward into the western CONUS in the third week of February, with a negative 500-hPa height anomaly centered over the Northeast. There is significant uncertainty in dynamical model forecasts for the end of February, with generally negative 500-hPa height anomalies extending across the southern tier of the CONUS in most model solutions, positive 500-hPa height anomalies over Alaska, and the CFS predicting positive 500-hPa height anomalies extending across the northern tier of the CONUS, consistent with the mid-latitude circulation pattern associated with El Niño.

Temperature

The February outlook slightly favors above normal temperatures across Alaska, excluding the western Aleutians, as dynamical model forecasts predict a rapid change from likely below normal temperatures in early to mid-February to positive 500-hPa height anomalies, southerly flow, and above normal temperatures in place during the second half of the month. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of the northern CONUS and southward over the central CONUS into Northern Texas, consistent with dynamical model probability forecasts for the full month from the GEFS and CFS. Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for most of the Northern Plains. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Southwest, where temperatures are likely to be near-to-below normal early in the month and near-to-above normal later in the month, as forecast by the GEFS. Near normal temperatures continue to be favored for coastal areas of the Southeast, including the Florida Peninsula, where decadal temperature trends  are positive, while negative temperature anomalies are correlated with El Niño conditions.

Precipitation

The February outlook favors above normal precipitation for the southern coast of Mainland Alaska, supported by dynamical model forecasts for later in February and correlations with El Niño conditions. Below normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest and across much of the Midwest and Northeast, consistent with canonical impacts of El Niño and recent CFS dynamical model forecasts for February. A high probability of above normal precipitation, exceeding 60 percent in some areas, is forecast in the February outlook for much of Southern California, Nevada, and western Arizona, supported by model predictions of substantial precipitation for the first week of the month, that may exceed the climatological threshold for above normal precipitation amounts for February [Author’s Note: In Week one they expect more than what would be above nomal for the month] . Above normal precipitation is favored eastward across the Southwest, and northeastward into the Central Plains, as far north as Wyoming and South Dakota, with enhanced probabilities of precipitation during the first half of February. Probabilities for above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent for parts of the Central Plains, where climatological precipitation amounts are relatively low and may be exceeded early in the month. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Southern Plains, where the outlook for the second half of February favors above normal precipitation. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored along the Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic coasts, consistent with recent dynamical model forecasts and the impacts of El Niño.

Drought Outlook

Here is the newly issued Drought Outlook for the month.

Here is the short version of the drought summary

Latest Monthly Assessment – During past 30 days, drought has slowly improved (1 to 3 class) across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Four Corners region, Central and Southern Great Plains, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and parts of the Southeastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) due to above normal precipitation. Conversely, drought development and intensification was observed across parts of the northern Intermountain West and NorthernHigh Plains, and parts of northwestern Arizona due to below normal precipitation.

Looking forward through the end of February, slow improvements are forecast to continue across parts of western Oregon, given the wet time of year and favorable precipitation and temperature outlooks through at least the first half of the month. However, much of the Pacific moisture flow is not likely to go far enough inland to make a meaningful impact on existing drought in the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West, where drought is favored to persist. Ongoing drought conditions are expected to ease a bit in parts of the Southwest where precipitation chances are high through most of February. However, even though above normal prediction is favored in the updated CPC monthly outlook, persistence is likely for the remainder of New Mexico due to February being a rather dry time of year. The Central Great Plains will likely remain a battleground, with mixed persistence and improvement. Meanwhile, improvements are most likely in the southern Plains and persistence is favored in the northern Plains. A cold time of year and lack of wet signals in the monthly outlook make drought persistence the most likely outcome across much of the Midwest, except parts of the southern region where improvements are likely due to above normal heavy precipitation during the past week. Near to above normal precipitation is expected across the Southeast, favoring further improving drought conditions across the region. Persistence is forecast for the existing drought over the Northeast due to unfavorable precipitation outlooks through the end of February. Alaska is forecast to remain drought-free through the end of February, with wet antecedent conditions and favorable precipitation outlooks for much of the state throughout the month. Drought persistence is favored in Hawaii due to forecast below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures, with potential development over currently anomalous dry areas. Also antecedent dryness, El Niño, and unfavorable precipitation outlooks favor drought persistence and development in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

We also have an updated Seasonal Drought Outlook (link).

To access the dashboard for this podcast click HERE. You will then have to click on the start arrow to listen to this podcast. It is focused on the Southwest but generally covers more than the Southwest since all regions of the U.S. are interconnected in most cases.