This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Dec 23 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 23 2023 – 12Z Mon Dec 25 2023…Heavy rainfall and flash flash flooding threats shift east into the
southern Plains today, spreading into the central Gulf Coast and west of
mid-Mississippi Valley by Christmas Eve……Mountain snow and valley rain traverse from the Pacific Northwest
through the northern Rockies today……Snow is forecast to spread from the central Rockies Saturday night
before expanding across the central to northern Plains into Christmas
Eve……Unusually mild temperatures with some reaching record levels in the
upper Midwest on Sunday…
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A low pressure system currently bringing areas of heavy rain across the
Desert Southwest will work in tandem with an upper-level trough
progressing steadily through the Pacific Northwest to develop and
consolidate an elongated low pressure system over the mid-section of the
country for the holiday weekend. The upper trough and associated
cold front over the Northwest will bring a quick round of mountain snow
and valley rain through the northern Great Basin today, into the northern
and central Rockies by tonight. Meanwhile, the heavy rain threat across
the Desert Southwest this morning is expected to ease as today progresses,
as the low pressure system responsible for the heavy rain moves
northeastward toward the central Rockies. When the two systems meet over
the central Rockies tonight, a low pressure system is forecast to develop
over the central High Plains with a swath of snow beginning to extend
northeastward into the central High Plains toward the northern Plains on
Sunday, Christmas Eve. In the mean time, warm and moist air from the Gulf
of Mexico will be pulled northward across the western Gulf Coast region
toward the southern Plains, where scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread Saturday night and
into the morning of Christmas Eve. Excessive Rainfall rates are possible
particularly in north-central Texas and southern Oklahoma where a Slight
Risk is in place. Farther northeast, a weaker system in the Great Lakes
will make its way into the Northeast by this evening with a mix of rain
and snow showers. Little snowfall accumulations are expected.As the elongated low pressure system further develops and expands
across the central Plains on Christmas Eve, the threat of heavy rain
will then shift farther east into the central Gulf Coast region while
extending back to the west of the mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front with a warm front lifting north from the Gulf
of Mexico. Farther north in the cold air, a few inches of snow is
possible across the northern Plains behind a cold front. Minor ice
accumulations are also expected farther east. By Christmas Eve night to
Christmas morning, the low pressure system is forecast to intensify as the
storm center shifts east toward the Midwest. Rain/ice/snow could begin to
expand and pick up intensity over the central to northern Plains when the
system intensifies with winds increasing in strength by Christmas morning.Temperature-wise, it will not feel too much like Christmas from the
mid-section of the country east to the East Coast this holiday weekend. On
Saturday, many places in the Great Plains can expect daytime highs that
range between 10-25 degrees above normal. Morning lows will even be milder
with a wide footprint of 20-30 degrees above normal temps from central
Texas to the Upper Great Lakes. By Christmas Eve, record warm minimum
temps will be common in the Midwest where many low temps will be
considerably higher than the average high temps for late December. The
East Coast will not witness quite the anomalous warmth that the Midwest
will, but daily average temps could still top 10-15 degrees above normal
in parts of the Northeast on Christmas Eve. By Christmas Day, the most
unusually mild temperatures are expected in the Great Lakes and Northeast
where highs could range between 10-20 degrees above normal. In contrast,
the central/southern Plains and central/southern Rockies will be the
coolest versus normal thanks to a recent cold frontal passage injecting
the region with an air-mass that feels a lot more like Christmas compared
to their neighbors on the East and West Coasts.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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