This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
| Notices: We recently published a review of October weather worldwide and you can access that article HERE. And a review of October weather for the U.S. which you can access HERE. We have now published the NOAA Seasonal Update which you can access HERE. This was followed up with the update of the Mid-December Outlook which you can access HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Dec 02 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 02 2023 – 12Z Mon Dec 04 2023…A multi-day atmospheric river event will impact the Northwest with
significant mountain snowfall and heavy rain this weekend……Unsettled weather forecast across the eastern third of the country with
heavy rain potential along the Gulf Coast and Southeast; wintry weather is
expected from parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes to northern New
England……Generally milder than normal temperatures expected for across most of
the Lower 48…
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The first weekend of December is shaping up to be an active one in the
West thanks to a series of atmospheric rivers directing copious amounts of
Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies. The next
storm in a series of storm systems arrived this morning, inflicting more
heavy mountain snow in the Olympics and Cascades that will continue
throughout the day. Meanwhile, the same moisture source will push inland
towards the Rockies Saturday and into Saturday night. As a result, heavy
mountain snow is on tap from eastern Oregon and the northern Rockies on
south to the Wasatch Range in Utah and the Colorado Rockies. By Sunday,
the next storm system will track farther north towards British Columbia.
This storm system’s warm front lifts north through western Washington and
Oregon on Sunday, forcing snow levels to rise sharply and force most of
the Cascades and Olympics to switch over to heavy rain. This combination
of heavy rain atop a deep snowpack may lead to minor and moderate river
flooding, as well as possible flash flooding, into early next week. WPC
has issued a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Sunday for portions of
western Oregon, while a Marginal Risk extends north from the far northern
California coast to Washington’s Cascade and Olympic Ranges. As much as 5
to 10 inches of rainfall are forecast along the coast of Oregon, while as
much as several feet of snow accumulate in the higher terrain and passes
of the Cascades. The northern and central Rockies can also expect heavy
snow with some areas seeing 1-3 feet through the weekend. The Winter Storm
Severity Index (WSSI) shows Major Impacts are possible in the highest
elevations of the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, likely causing
hazardous to even impossible travel conditions in these impacted areas.Farther east, a pair of storm systems will lead to wet and wintry weather
across portions the eastern third of the CONUS. Along the Gulf Coast, low
pressure tapping into rich Gulf of Mexico moisture is set to ignite
strong-to-severe thunderstorms from southern Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle. There are Slight Risks for both severe storms and Excessive
Rainfall in portions of these areas today with severe storms more likely
to contain damaging wind gusts and/or tornadoes. Farther north, showers
will envelope the Mid-Atlantic and both the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
Saturday afternoon and into Saturday night. By Sunday morning, a new storm
system tracking into the Great Lakes will be responsible for periods of
light rain and snow from the Midwest to the northern Great Lakes. Farther
east, another developing area of low pressure along the Northeast coast
looks to form and produce periods of rain along the I-95 corridor during
the day on Sunday. In northern New England, precipitation will fall in the
form of snow Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. Snow looks to fall
heavily at times in the Adirondacks, the Green and White mountains, and
into northern Maine. Latest WPC probabilistic forecasts shows a high
chance (greater than 70%) for snowfall totals over 6 inches through Sunday
night from central New Hampshire to both northern and central Maine. The
latest WSSI shows Moderate Impacts from east-central New Hampshire into
central Maine, indicating snowfall here will be capable of causing
disruptions to daily life. This includes hazardous driving conditions and
potential closures and travel delays.Temperature-wise, much of the Lower 48 will witness seasonal to milder
than normal conditions, particularly east of the Rockies. The coolest
temperatures versus normal will be experienced in the Rockies. Back in the
Southeast, record warm morning lows are forecast from South Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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