This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
| Notices: We recently published a review of October weather worldwide and you can access that article HERE. And a review of October weather for the U.S. which you can access HERE. We have now published the NOAA Seasonal Update which you can access HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 30 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 30 2023 – 12Z Sat Dec 02 2023…Storm system to bring threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain
from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday,
spreading further into the Southeast Friday……Areas of light to moderate precipitation expected from the Central
Plains to the interior Northeast, with a wintry mix possible for some
locations……Atmospheric river activity arriving across the Pacific Northwest by the
end of the week will bring heavy rain to the coastal ranges, and heavy
snowfall to the Cascades……Locally heavy snowfall possible for higher mountain elevations in the
Four Corners region..
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An upper-level shortwave over the Southwest will move over the Southern
Plains Thursday, helping to better organize/strengthen a surface frontal
system and bring increasing storm chances from eastern portions of the
Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very moist southerly
return flow from the Gulf will result in a threat for both severe weather
and some flash flooding. The best chance for severe weather Thursday will
be in southeastern Texas where strengthening wind fields will overspread
the more buoyant air close to the Gulf Coast. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) for the threat
of a few tornadoes. Additionally, some very heavy downpours will be
possible, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall now in place for the
greater Houston area east through southwestern Louisiana where the
greatest chance for a few instances of flash flooding is expected. A more
isolated threat for severe weather and flash flooding will exist further
north into the Arklatex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Storm chances will
shift slowly eastward into the Southeast and along the central Gulf coast
Thursday, with a continued risk of a couple isolated instances of severe
weather and flash flooding.Additional light to moderate precipitation is expected to the north of the
surface low track, stretching from the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley Thursday into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and interior Northeast
Friday. Some snow will likely mix in to the north of a quasi-stationary
boundary draped through the region, most likely for portions of the
Central Plains Thursday and from the Great Lakes into the interior
Northeast Friday. Some light accumulations of 1-2″ will be possible.An active pattern of Atmospheric River activity looks to set up along the
West Coast through at least this weekend with a series of shortwaves and
influx of moisture overspreading the Pacific Northwest/northern
California. Coastal/lower elevations will see moderate to locally heavy
rain, with the heavier rainfall more likely Friday and then into the
weekend. The flood threat currently looks low with this initial rainfall,
though will likely slowly increase as antecedent conditions become wetter.
Heavy snowfall is forecast for higher elevations in the Cascades, with
totals exceeding a foot through the end of the period. Moisture will also
spread inland through the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, with a
rain/snow mix for lower elevations and moderate to heavy snow in the
regional mountain ranges. Any accumulations should be limited for the
lower elevations, but some of the mountains could see 6-12″, with locally
higher amounts. A rain/snow mix at lower elevations and moderate to heavy
snow for higher mountain locations will also continue in the Four Corners
region through Friday as the upper-level wave currently over the Southwest
departs but the pattern remains active with shortwaves dropping southward
from the Northwest.Elsewhere, milder temperatures are forecast to return to the East Coast
after several chilly days. Conditions will be dry Thursday but rain
chances will increase by late Friday as the storm system to the west
approaches. Temperatures will be near average with dry conditions from the
Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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