Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 19 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows, and coastal/lower-elevation rains……Low pressure system developing over the central High Plains will bring
an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S.
towards the eastern U.S….…Above average temperatures for the South and the Northern Plains while
colder air surges across the western U.S….
The key Outlook Map from the NOAA release that we published yesterday is:
Now, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A vigorous upper-level trough currently hurling onshore into the West
Coast will send a wave of inclement weather rapidly from west to east
across the country through the next couple of days. The Pacific Northwest
is first in line to feel the impacts from this weather system including
coastal/lower elevation rains, high elevation snow, and the onset of
strong gusty winds today. These weather conditions are expected to
penetrate quite rapidly inland today behind a dynamic cold front,
overspreading much of the Intermountain West and Great Basin with sharply
falling temperatures by tonight. Wind-related advisories have been posted
for portions of these areas.In the meantime, a low pressure system currently developing over the
central High Plains will be energized as the vigorous upper trough sweeps
through the western U.S. today. Showers and thunderstorms currently
developing over the central Plains ahead of the low pressure system will
likely expand toward the east and northeast for the next few days as the
system expands and intensifies. This system will also help the mountain
snows and lower-elevation rains to linger a bit longer over the central
Rockies and High Plains through Monday and into Monday night. On the warm
side of the system, thunderstorms could become severe particularly by
later on Monday across the Deep South as a warm front lifts northeastward
across the region with an influx of warm and moist air from the Gulf of
Mexico. By Tuesday morning, the center of the low pressure system is
forecast to reach into the Ohio Valley with widespread rainfall from the
lower Great Lakes down into the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians and
into the interior Southeast. Thunderstorms could again reach severe
levels across the Mid-South and possibly down toward the central Gulf
Coast as the dynamic cold front sweeps across the region from west to east.Farther north, colder air from Canada could bring some light wintry mix
into the upper Midwest early on Tuesday. The same can be said for
interior New England today into tonight with the passage of an arctic
front. The remainder of the East Coast will be mostly dry through Tuesday
morning before the leading edge of the moisture from the Ohio Valley storm
arrives. Temperatures will be generally seasonable for the East Coast,
cool and bit below average for New England, but will remain mild over the
northern Plains. In contrast, temperatures will be below average across
much of the West with the passage of the upper trough. Highs along the
coast will be closer to seasonable with mostly 50s and 60s, and 70s for
southern California.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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