Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 09 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 09 2023 – 12Z Sat Nov 11 2023…Warm to record breaking temperatures from Southern Plains to
Mid-Atlantic today will give way to cooler conditions beginning tonight……Post-frontal showers and thunderstorms develop across Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley……Storm system brings rain and snow to the Northwest beginning this
afternoon……Critical Risk of Fires over parts of Southern California today…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Troughing over the Central U.S. will support the development of a
mid-latitude cyclone over the Northeast today. The attendant cold front
extends from the interior Northeast back down to the Southern High Plains.
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop
around and behind this cold front today, especially over the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain and snow showers will continue
from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast
today. Pockets of freezing rain may occur over parts of the Northern
Appalachians this morning. The rain and thunderstorms shift south into the
Texas/Central Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday as the cold front works
its way through the Southeast.An axis of above normal temperatures extending from the Southern Plains to
the Mid-Atlantic will soon be washed away by the approaching cold front
this afternoon and evening. In the meantime, high temperatures in the 70s
and 80s will be 15-25 degrees above normal. Many parts of the the
Southeast, Southern/Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic will experience
near or record breaking high temperatures today. Temperatures will fall
drastically on the backside of the cold front over the Southern High
Plains today, with highs in the 40s to low 50s representing a 15-25 degree
departure from normal. This is expected to continue into Friday as well
while high pressure builds over the Central CONUS. Temperatures fall well
below average across the East Coast this Veterans Day weekend.A series of low pressure systems will bring low elevation rain and
mountain snow to the Northwest beginning this afternoon. Anywhere between
1-2 feet of snow are expected for the northern Cascades, while much
lighter amounts are likely across the Northern Rockies over the next 2
days. Elsewhere, a Critical Fire Weather area was introduced over parts of
Southern California including Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. The
greatest risk of fires will be late this morning into early this afternoon
when wind gusts of over 50mph and the driest conditions will occur.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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