Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 01 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 01 2023 – 12Z Fri Nov 03 2023…Record setting cold and subfreezing temperatures to span much of the
central and southern United States...…Atmospheric River ushers in wet weather to the Pacific Northwest by
tonight…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A strong high pressure system settling over the Lower Mississippi Valley
and southern Plains will allow for frigid early morning temperatures
today. Lows into the teens and 20s are expected across much of the
central/northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio/Tennessee valleys,
while temperatures near the freezing mark sink towards the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Deep South. Frigid readings into the teens are also
likely across parts of northern Maine. These cold temperatures may break
several daily record lows between Texas and West Virginia, equating to
around 20 degrees below average. This fall chill will shift eastward on
Thursday morning, with subfreezing temperatures expanding across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The main impacts associated with the cold
conditions will be associated with a frost and/or freeze threat. Sensitive
vegetation may be damaged or killed and exposed water pipes could be
damaged if proper precautions aren’t taken. A continuous area of Freeze
Warnings and Watches span from central Texas to southern Pennsylvania and
New Jersey, including much of the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and
Southeast. Temperatures should slowly begin to moderate back to near
average by the end of the week as the aforementioned high pressure system
gradually weakens and shifts eastward.A wet weather pattern is set to begin across the Pacific Northwest as an
Atmospheric River surges inland tonight over Washington and Oregon. Warm
Pacific air will allow for snow levels to increase and rain to fall across
most of the Cascades. A few inches of rain over the Cascades, coastal
ranges and valleys could lead to isolated instances of flooding or runoff
concerns. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been
issued for this region through Thursday. Heavy snowfall may enter the
Yellowstone region of northwest Wyoming and southwest Montana on Thursday
as moisture continues to progress inland. Here, medium probabilities
(40-50%) for at least 4 inches of snowfall exist. The next storm system
containing another potential round of heavy rain is set to approach
northern California and Oregon on Friday nightMostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere across the Nation. Light rain
and snow showers are possible across the Northeast and Lower Great Lakes
today as a developing low pressure system exits the western Atlantic
Ocean. Strong northeasterly flow behind a cold front could also produce
scattered showers along the eastern Florida Peninsula over the next few
days.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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