Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 31 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 02 2023…Crisp autumn airmass to lead to a shivering Halloween throughout much
of the central and eastern United States……Snow showers to swing across the Great Lakes and parts of the Midwest…
…Atmospheric River ushers in wet weather to the Pacific Northwest by
midweek…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The spookiest day on the calendar may have a few tricks this time as
record-breaking cold spreads its eerie touch from the southern Plains to
the central/southern Appalachians. A robust high pressure system building
into the central U.S. behind a sharp cold front pushing across the
Southeast will be responsible for the brisk conditions. Highs today are
expected to range from 10 to 30 degrees below average everywhere east of
the Rockies (excluding Florida and southern Georgia). This equates to
Halloween afternoon temperatures only reaching the 40s and 50s for most,
with 30s in the Midwest, Great Lakes, central and northern Plains. As the
night descends, temperatures will be chillingly cold while dipping into
the teens and 20s for most locations, giving even the bravest late-night
trick-or-treaters a shiver. Lows in the 30s will be found throughout the
East Coast and Gulf Coast States. These temperatures could break several
daily records into Wednesday morning from Texas to West Virginia, with
additional cold records possible on Thursday morning from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The main concern with the expected
cold will be associated with frost and temperatures below freezing. Many
areas will end their growing season over the next few days from the
southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, including parts of the Deep South.
Exposed water pipes will also be at risk of freezing or bursting if proper
precautions are not taken. Freeze Warnings and Watches as well as Frost
Advisories are in effect. The cold and dry airmass when combined with
gusty winds may also increase fire weather danger across the central Gulf
Coast states, prompting Red Flag Warnings to be issued.Within this cold airmass in place, a compact area of low pressure cutting
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today will provide the chance for
scattered snow showers. Snow could be locally heavy at times across
western Lower Michigan on the northern side of this system. Lake-effect
snow showers may also lead to a wintry night of trick-or-treating for the
remainder of the Great Lakes region. Remember that the first snow of the
season can be frightful, so be sure to take it slow while traveling and
plan ahead.Elsewhere, lingering showers over the Carolinas and coastal sections of
the Mid-Atlantic and New England are possible through early Wednesday as
an area of low pressure develops over the western Atlantic. Fear not, as
much of the showers should be light and not put too much of a damper on
evening activities. Heavier rain is expected to impact the Pacific
Northwest by Wednesday evening to kick off the start of November. An
Atmospheric River moving onshore Washington and Oregon will produce a few
inches of rain by the end of the day on Thursday, with warm Pacific air
also rising snow levels above 8000 feet so that even most of the Cascades
experience moderate to locally heavy rain.Lastly, Santa Ana winds are forecast to gradually wane through midweek
after one more day of gusty conditions today. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible throughout Southern California. When combined with dry vegetation
and low relative humidity, elevated fire weather conditions remain.Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
