Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 28 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 28 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 30 2023…Heavy rain and scattered areas of flash flooding possible from the
Southern Plains through the Lower Ohio Valley……Moderate to locally heavy snow forecast across the Central Rockies and
Front Range this weekend……Bitter early season cold snap spreads further across much of the Great
Plains and Rockies, while record-breaking warmth is found across the East
and Gulf Coast……Very dry and windy conditions developing across California by Sunday
will increase the threat for wildfire activity…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The main weather feature impacting the Nation through early next week will
be a strong autumn frontal boundary responsible for separating
record-breaking warmth in the Deep South and East from early season Arctic
air dropping south across portions of the north-central United States.
This front will be settling south and east with time and will drive an
elongated axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms today from the Southern
Plains through the Lower Mississippi Valley. A focused area of heavy rain
occuring this morning over parts of North Texas and near the Dallas-Fort
Worth metro also experienced pockets of very heavy rainfall on Friday,
which will create the potential for more widespread flash flooding. Thus,
a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect today
for these locations. Gradually, these heavy rains will advance northeast
into the Ohio Valley tonight and Sunday as multiple waves of low pressure
advance northeastward along the front. Locally a few inches of rain can be
expected in vicinity of the front, and given the multiple rounds of heavy
rain, scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible through the
weekend. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued
through Sunday from central Texas to western Kentucky and Tennessse.As the aforementioned front banks up against the Rockies and the Front
Range, an upper trough will be digging across the Intermountain West today
and ejecting east out into the High Plains on Sunday. Heavy snowfall will
impact the Central Rockies and Front Range with somewhat lighter amounts
spreading across the adjacent High Plains. Winter Storm Warnings have been
issued for the mountainous terrain of western Colorado, where as much as 1
to 2 feet of snow is expected this weekend. Winter Storm Warnings alos
extend into the Front Range and Denver metropolitan area due to the
potential for snowfall accumulations between 6 and 14 inches. Lesser
amounts up to as much as 4 to 6 inches can be expected from northeast
Colorado and into the Nebraska Sandhills. Additionally, light freezing
rain/drizzle is possible on Sunday across the southern High Plains and
Central Plains on Sunday as very cold surface temperatures surge southward
within an area of showers located north of lingering frontal boundary.
This has led to the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories into parts of
the Central Plains. A strong area of high pressure nosing southward into
the northern/central High Plains will produce plenty of cold air for the
aforementioned snowfall, while also leading to single digit low
temperatures across parts of Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. A few
daily low temperature records are not out of the question this morning.This same area of strong high pressure will force a cold front passage all
the way through the entire Great Basin and the Desert Southwest by the end
of the weekend. Cooler temperatures will arrive as a result, but as high
pressure builds southward, much drier air along with strong, gusty winds
will begin to impact California. This will set up a Santa Ana wind event
for southern California by Sunday, and will result in a developing
critical threat of wildfire activity for the Transverse Ranges and the Los
Angeles Basin.Elsewhere, and opposite of the bitter cold in the north-central U.S.,
summer-like temperatures are in the forecast from the Tennessee Valley and
Gulf Coast states to the Northeast this weekend. Strong southerly flow
ahead of the approaching cold front will create dry conditions and
temperatures 10 to 30 degrees above late-October averages. Afternoon highs
are forecast to reach into the low-to-mid 80s for most locations and could
break numerous daily high temperature records. A quick reprieve back to
colder weather though is expected across the Northeast and northern
Mid-Atlantic on Sunday along with a likelihood for scattered areas of
showers as the cold front crosses this region. Meanwhile, temperatures
across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast should remain very warm through
Monday with highs here staying in the 80s ahead of the advancing cold
front.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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