Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 27 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 27 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 29 2023…Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding chances extend from the
Southern Plains through the Lower Ohio Valley……Moderate to locally heavy snow forecast across the Central Rockies this
weekend……Bitter early season cold snap expected across much of the Great Plains
and Rockies, while record-breaking warmth is found across the East and
Gulf Coast..
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The main weather feature impacting the Nation through this weekend will be
a strong autumn frontal boundary responsible for separating
record-breaking warmth in the Deep South and East from anomalous cold in
the north-central United States. This front will also allow for a region
of showers and thunderstorms to focus over similar areas for multiple
days, leading to locally heavy rainfall amounts between the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Heavy rain chances are anticipated to
impact central and north Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas
today before spreading farther northeast across the Ozarks and far western
Kentucky on Saturday. The aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast to
linger on Sunday and create additional heavy rain chances. Given the
multiple rounds of moderate to locally heavy rain for this region,
scattered flash flooding is possible through the end of the weekend. A
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for each day
through Sunday across the previously mentioned locations.As the frontal boundary banks up against the Rockies and an upper trough
digs across the Intermountain West on Saturday, heavy snowfall is expected
to impact the Central Rockies with lighter amounts stretching eastward
into the Nebraska Sandhills. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the
mountainous terrain of western Colorado, where there is a high probability
(>70%) of total snowfall amounts exceeding 8 inches. Snow is also likely
to reach into the Colorado Front Range (including the Denver metropolitan
area), with high probabilities for greater than 4 inches of total snowfall
ending Sunday midday. A potent high pressure system nosing southward into
the northern/central High Plains will produce plenty of cold air for the
aforementioned snowfall, while also leading to single digit low
temperatures across parts of Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota. A few
daily low temperature records are not out of the question Saturday morning
and gives the northern High Plains an early dose of mid-winter weather.Meanwhile, opposite of the bitter cold in the north-central U.S.,
summer-like temperatures are in the forecast from the Tennessee Valley to
the Northeast through at least early this weekend. Strong southerly flow
ahead of the approaching frontal boundary will create dry conditions and
temperatures 10 to 30 degrees above late-October averages. Afternoon highs
are forecast to reach into the low-to-mid 80s for most locations and could
break numerous daily high temperature records. A quick reprieve back to
cooler weather should enter the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday along with shower chances, while highs into the 80s remain across
the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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