Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 26 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 26 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 28 2023…Significant early season winter storm continues from the Northern
Rockies through the Northern Plains Thursday, tapering off Friday……Heavy rainfall with the threat of scattered flash flooding for Southern
Plains and Upper Great Lakes……Much above average temperatures for the East as winter-like cold
spreads southward in the Northern/Central Plains…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Bouts of heavy snow will continue for portions of the Northern Rockies and
Plains Thursday ahead of an upper-level low over the Northwest. Additional
snowfall of 4-8 inches, locally higher, is expected from central/eastern
Montana into western/northern North Dakota. Another 8-12 inches of snow is
also expected for the local mountain ranges of southwestern Montana,
Wyoming, and northern Utah. Heavy snow rates of 1″/hr as well as some
blustery winds may lead to low visibility and difficult travel conditions.
The snow should begin to taper off west to east through early Friday
morning, with some snow lingering for higher elevations of the Northern
and Central Rockies.A wet and stormy pattern remains in place across much of the Plains and
into the Midwest/Great Lakes as energetic southwesterly flow continues
aloft, helping to trigger additional rounds of showers and storms and
leading to two localized maxima of heavy rainfall. The first will be over
the Southern Plains where anomalously high moisture remains in place,
helping to contribute to locally heavy downpours and enhancing rainfall
totals, particularly as storms tend to cluster and repeat over the same
areas. Antecedent conditions have increasingly become wetter after
multiple days of widespread heavy rainfall. Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) are in effect for portions of central to eastern
Texas Thursday and northern Texas Friday where the highest probability of
some scattered instances of flash flooding exists. A second local maxima
will once again be over the Upper Great Lakes where moist southerly flow
meets a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped over the region. An
upper-level shortwave passing over the region Thursday will also help
encourage storm development, with rainfall totals of a few inches possible
as storms travel along and near the front. Similar to the Southern Plains,
a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place Thursday as this area has
seen multiple days of heavy rainfall recently, helping to enhance concerns
for the risk of some flash flooding.An upper-level ridge amplifying over the East will help keep temperatures
well above average heading into the weekend. Forecast highs range from the
60s and 70s for the Great Lakes and New England; the 70s to low 80s from
the Middle Mississippi Valley east through the Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic; and the 80s for the Southern Plains, the Lower Mississippi
Valley, and the Southeast. Some record-tying/breaking highs will be
possible for the Mid-Atlantic. In contrast, bitterly cold, winter-like air
will continue for the Northern Rockies/Plains behind a strong cold front
even as the winter storm tapers off. Forecast highs Thursday and Friday
from Montana into northern Wyoming and the western Dakotas will only get
to the 20s, with morning lows for some areas dropping into the single
digits. Blustery winds may lead to subzero wind chills at times. After
much above average highs in the 60s and 70s for the Central Plains
Thursday, highs will drop into the 40s Friday as the cold front pushes
southward. Much colder, well below average temperatures will also follow a
cold front southward through the West. Forecast highs Thursday and Friday
for much of the interior Northwest and Great Basin will be in the 40s,
with 50s and 60s along the West Coast. Temperatures will be closer to
average in the Desert Southwest with 70s and 80s expected.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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