Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 24 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 24 2023 – 12Z Thu Oct 26 2023…A significant early season winter storm will bring heavy snowfall later
Tuesday through Wednesday across portions of the Northwest, Northern
Rockies, and Northern Plains……Heavy rainfall and some areas of flash flooding will be possible for
portions of the Southern Plains and Great Lakes……Much above average temperatures for much of the central and eastern
U.S. mid-week…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An upper-level low dropping southeastward over the northwestern U.S. will
help drive a significant early season winter storm from the Northwest
through the Northern Rockies and into portions of the Northern Plains
beginning Tuesday night. With cold air already in place, the falling
heights and secondary surge of cold air will help to bring snow levels
down so that heavy snowfall is expected for lower elevation valleys and
the Plains in addition to the mountains. Forecast storm total snowfall
ranges between 5-10″, locally 12″, from western North Dakota and eastern
Montana into the lower elevations of western Montana, with as much as 1-2
feet for the mountains of the Northern Rockies and northern Cascades. Snow
may mix in for lower elevations of the interior Northwest but little to no
accumulations are expected, while some accumulating snow will likely
spread further eastward into eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota
by Wednesday night, continuing beyond the current forecast period. In
addition to the snow, the falling temperatures will feel like an early
winter blast, with highs only into the 20s and lows in the teens by
Wednesday from the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains.
Temperatures will be chilly but a bit more moderate in the Northwest, with
mostly 40s and low 50s expected.To the east, showers and storms are expected to continue from the Plains
into the Midwest/Great Lakes as a broad warm sector remains in place ahead
of a pair of frontal systems. A deep upper-trough that has dug into
northern Mexico will continue to help support widespread storms ahead of a
Pacific front pushing into the Southern Plains. Anomalously high moisture
aided from the remnants of Norma will lead to some locally heavy
downpours, with repeated rounds of storms under broad southwesterly flow
increasing the potential for heavy rainfall totals. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) have been issued for both Tuesday and
Wednesday from the Texas Big Bend northeastward into Oklahoma where the
highest potential for this heavy rainfall and some scattered flash
flooding exists, particularly as some of these areas see repeated rounds
of rainfall over multiple days. Further north, a secondary local maxima of
heavy rainfall potential is expected across portions of the Upper Great
Lakes where moist southerly flow meets a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
draped over the region. Energetic upper-level flow parallel to the
boundary will help lead to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. A Slight
Risk of Excessive rainfall is in place for Tuesday with a Marginal Risk
Wednesday as some isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible here as well.In contrast to the frigid temperatures from the Northwest into the
Northern High Plains, an amplifying ridge to the east will help continue
much above average highs for the central U.S. and bring warmer
temperatures back to the Northeast. After a chilly morning many locations
dropping into the 30s for the Northeast, highs will warm into the 60s
Tuesday with 70s by Wednesday. Highs in the 70s to low 80s are forecast
from the Central Plains into the Midwest, with 80s from the Southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Highs will be closer to average
from the Southeast into Florida, with 70s and 80s forecast. Conditions
will also be near average for California into the Great Basin, with 60s
and 70s expected, and 80s for the Desert Southwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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